- The US dollar has fallen a bit during the early hours on Wednesday against the Mexican peso as we continue to bounce around between the 50 day EMA underneath and the 200 day EMA above.
- Ultimately, it seems like we are settling on trading right around the 17 pesos level as well.
- This makes a certain amount of sense considering we had shot straight up in the air and now have to work off some of the indecision.
The Federal Open Market Committee
As the FOMC statement, announcement, and press conference is in focus late in the day on Wednesday, you have to be aware that these emerging market currencies will get thrown around quite drastically. The analysis is best done at the end of the day, seeing where the USD/MXN pair ended. If we can break above the highs of the last week or so, which is basically 17.39, then I think the US dollar will continue to strengthen against the Mexican peso. On the other hand, if we were to close below the 16.87 level, it's possible that the US dollar plunges again towards the 16.33 level.
Either way, this is a market that right now is sitting on a razor's edge and will have to make a bigger decision. That being said, trading during the definitely going to be dangerous due to the fact that there are a lot of concerns when it comes to liquidity in major currency pairs, let alone something like the dollar against the peso. However, we may be getting ready to see a big move.
I think at the end of the day on Wednesday, you may have a bit of a heads up as to which direction you should be trading. After all, this pair does tend to trend for long periods of time, and I think that we are in a major inflection point. In other words, this could be a set up that lasts several weeks, if not months. The interest rate continues to favor the Mexican peso, but if people start to worry about the economy, this pair could turn around quite quickly.
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