- The US dollar initially trying to rally a bit during the Wednesday session but has since been repudiated by the Mexican peso.
- This does make a certain amount of sense due to the fact that the Mexican economy offers almost twice the interest rate that the US economy does.
- However, there’s a little bit of noise in this pair simply due to the fact that the Mexican economy is almost completely dependent on what happens in the United States.
Furthermore, with retail sales falling a bit flat in the United States, we've seen a little bit of selling in the US dollar. But really, at the end of the day, I think it's all about the interest rate differential still. We are getting dangerously close to some historically important support levels on the monthly chart in the form of 16.
Breaking 16 MXN is a big deal
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If we were to break down below there, it would obviously be a huge plunge for the United States dollar, and therefore you'd have to watch other emerging market currencies. We did recently see a spike in the US dollar, but it has sold off quite drastically since then, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the peso strengthen to the 16.35 level against the greenback, where it traded just last month.
Rallies at this point in time would continue to see a lot of overhead resistance, with the first barrier, of course, being the 50 day EMA above there. Then you have the psychologically significant 17 barrier and then the 200 day EMA. In general, I think this remains fade on the rally or fade signs of exhaustion after a short term rally, which is quite a bit different than how you're seeing the US dollar behave against most currencies.
Nonetheless, we are getting close to a major bottom, so we'll keep that in mind and keep your position size reasonable. Furthermore, you have to pay close attention to risk appetite if it starts to dry up, the buyers will come in, or perhaps just the short sellers will get out, and that could drive this pair higher.
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