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USD/JPY Analysis: Uptrend Remains Dominant

  • Despite the decline in the US dollar against other currencies since the release of below-expected US inflation figures, the overall trend for USD/JPY remains bullish.
  • This week's gains extended above the 156.55 resistance level before settling around 156.15 in early Wednesday trading ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting.
  • Overall, the divergence between Fed and BoJ policy will continue to drive the bulls' control of the trend.

USD/JPY Analysis Today 22/5: Uptrend Remains Dominant -graph

In general, interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and other payments have become more expensive as the Fed has kept its key rate at its highest level in more than two decades. It is trying to walk a tightrope, squeezing the economy enough with high interest rates to kill high inflation but not enough to trigger a painful recession. Meanwhile, a positive report last week showed that US inflation may finally be heading in the right direction after a disappointing start to the year, raising hopes that such a "soft landing" for the economy may be possible. Also, this boosted hopes that the Fed could cut its key rate once or twice this year.

On the other hand, according to stock trading platforms, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes added 0.2% each to close at new record highs. The Dow Jones 100 rose 0.1%, closing near its record highs. Overall, investors assessed a series of earnings reports from retailers and looked ahead to Nvidia's results due out tomorrow, while absorbing the latest comments from Fed officials.

Earlier, Fed official Christopher Waller said he needed to see several more months of positive data before considering US interest rate cuts, although he later expressed his preference for “a series of cuts.”

In corporate news, Lowe's shares fell 1.7% after the retailer warned that consumer demand is unlikely to improve this year, despite reporting upbeat earnings. Also, Macy's shares fell 2.4% after first-quarter sales and profits fell, although results still exceeded expectations. Peloton shares fell 16.4% after announcing the “global refinancing” operation, which includes the offering of convertible bonds and a five-year term loan worth $1 billion.

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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

    There is no change in our technical view of the performance of the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), which is bullish. Moreover, this trend may remain so until there is actual intervention from Japan in the forex currency markets to prevent further collapse of the currency price, which would harm the Japanese economy. According to the general upward trend, the nearest resistance levels are 157.00, 157.85, and 159.00, respectively. Recently, the currency pair's gains continued to move technical indicators towards strong overbought levels. Today, all focus will be on the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

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    Mahmoud Abdallah
    About Mahmoud Abdallah
    Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

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