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USD/CAD Analysis: Bearish Move Lower as Speculative Wagers Increase

The USD/CAD has continued to move lower since last week when the currency pair was traversing near the 1.37625 ratio on the 8th of May.

USD/CAD Analysis Today - 15/05: Bearish Move Low (Chart)

  • As of this morning’s trading the USD/CAD is showing that financial institutions are leaning into their weaker USD centric positions.
  • The gradual downturn in the USD/CAD the past week has now put the currency pair near interesting mid-term support levels.
  • The USD/CAD is near the 1.36340 ratio as of this writing, the currency pair challenged these lows on Friday of last week and yesterday too.

Although the U.S printed a stronger than expected Producer Price Index yesterday, financial institutions continue to show a desire to maintain their bearish positions in the USD/CAD. Support levels should be watched carefully; on the 3rd of May the currency pair did approach 1.36050 before producing a buying surge.

USD/CAD and Today’s U.S Consumer Sentiment Report Data

While the USD/CAD is technically intriguing because it is bouncing up against rather strong support levels in the short-term, today’s CPI numbers from the U.S will deliver a definite impetus into Forex and volatility should be expected. The stronger than expected inflation numbers yesterday in the U.S did not dampen the enthusiasm of bearish traders who seem to be once again taking on the perspective the U.S Federal Reserve will need to cut its interest rate at some point.

However, if the Consumer Price Index numbers come in with a stronger than anticipated outcome today in the U.S, this could provide an additional shockwave into Forex. Perspective will certainly get tested later today depending on the readings from the U.S inflation reports. Traders with open positions in the USD/CAD before the CPI release should be extraordinarily careful regarding their risk taking tactics.

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    Reactions and Speculation to Come in the USD/CAD

    If the U.S produces weaker than expected inflation numbers today this would seemingly help traders with a weaker USD centric perspective. Yesterday’s PPI data caused a short-term wicked storm in the USD/CAD and broad Forex market, but within about half an hours volatility subsided and the USD returned to its weaker stances against many major currencies. However, if the CPI statistics today are stronger than expected (on top of yesterday’s outcome) this could rattle the confidence of financial institutions which may need to reconsider their mid-term outlooks regarding the Federal Reserve.

    • Traders need to be ready for volatility today and the use of stop loss and take profit orders are urged for speculators without deep pockets.
    • Traders should anticipate the price range of the USD/CAD to widen before and after the release of the U.S CPI data.
    • The 1.36000 ratio is certainly within the sights and goals of bearish USD/CAD traders, but they will likely need weaker U.S inflation numbers to attain this lower level in a sustained manner.

    Canadian Dollar Short Term Outlook:

    Current Resistance: 1.36455

    Current Support: 1.36310

    High Target: 1.36920

    Low Target: 1.35970

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    Robert Petrucci
    About Robert Petrucci
    Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.
     

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