- The US dollar initially rallied against the Mexican peso during the trading session on Thursday but has given back some of the gains.
- At this point, the market is sitting just above the 16.70 level, which is an area that has been like a floor in the market over the last week or so, so I think it’s worth paying close attention to it.
- In general, this is a market that will continue to look at the downtrend due to the idea that interest rates favor the Mexican peso, but we also have a lot of questions to ask about geopolitics and the overall global economy.
Technical Analysis Still Looks Negative
The overall USD/MXN technical analysis continues to see a lot of negativity, as the 50-Day EMA is sitting at the top of the large black candle from the previous session. At this point, if we can turn around and rally somewhat significantly, it’s the 50-Day EMA that will be the gateway to perhaps trying to get to the 17.18 level, which is where the 200-Day EMA sits. If we can break above there, then the market could go much higher. In general, I think this is a situation where if we do get some type of rally, you will be looking for signs of exhaustion to start shorting.
Top Regulated Brokers
Keep in mind that the Mexican peso of course is an emerging market currency, and that has a major influence on how people tend to trade it. With that being said, I like the idea of collecting the interest rate advantage at the end of each day via the swap, but I also recognize that there are a lot of concerns around the world that could have people running toward the US dollar. I anticipate that the USD/MXN pair is going to be very choppy, so therefore it’s going to be difficult to get your hands around a big position. Quite frankly, I prefer to swing trade these emerging market currencies, and right now I don’t know if we have that opportunity, at least not at the moment.
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