- The New Zealand Dollar gained earlier today on a more hawkish RBNZ, but the Kiwi has since given up much of its earlier gains.
- The Japanese Yen has long term weakness, so long NZD/JPY could be a good trade if we see a bullish breakout to a new high or a retracement to the nearest support level.
- The NZD/JPY currency cross is in a strong, organised, long-term bullish trend.
New Zealand Dollar Index (ZXY): Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar has a mixed long-term trend, being up over 3 months but down over 6 months. However, since the start of May, the value of the Kiwi has risen powerfully, by nearly 4%, which is a significant rise for a major currency within such a short period of time.
Although the price chart below shows the Kiwi turned bullish yesterday, the Index does not show today’s candlestick which would certainly be very bullish, as spot NZD/USD is up by 0.33% on the Tokyo open earlier today.
I am not sure how much further bulls could take this currency over the short-term. Breaking the key resistance level at 62.07 shown in the price chart below looks unlikely to happen any time soon. It can be argued that the recent rally is technically extended.
Despite the price rise earlier today, the price is now showing a decline, suggesting what we have see in the NZD is likely to be just a spike, and won’t be sustained.
If the price can get established above 73.52, it is likely to rise further, at least to the next resistance level at 74.11. so that could facilitate a good long trade.
There may also be a support level at 60.46, but it is unclear whether this is likely.
New Zealand Dollar Index (ZXY): Fundamental Analysis
A few hours ago, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its official Cash Rate at 5.50%, as was widely expected. However, the Bank then went on to give a bullish, hawkish surprise in its statement by suggesting that the pace of any rate cuts will probably be slower than expected, and that their next move on rates might even be a hike.
This has maybe put the NZD’s fundamentals in a slightly more bullish position.
NZD/USD Forecast: Technical Analysis
The NZD/USD currency pair has risen bullishly over recent hours and has risen over the course of May. This currency pair is a bit more bullish technically than the NZD currency Index due to some recent weakness in the USD.
I must start with some kind of bullish approach, even if its not a strong one, because the price is well supported at a recent daily low ($0.6085) and has risen quite quickly from there.
Unfortunately for bulls, the earlier advance is giving up much of its gains, so this is starting to look like a spike.
The line of least resistance would be upwards, but we have likely resistance at $0.6150, confluent with a half-number.
I doubt that we will see much directional movement today, the price will be likely to consolidate within a relatively narrow range and respect support and resistance levels.
Support Levels:
- $0.6085
- $0.6000
Resistance Levels:
- $0.6150
- $0.6215
- $0.6317
NZD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis
The NZD/JPY currency cross has risen today to a new 16-year high price. Although it has given up some of its gains in recent hours, today’s price action is certainly more bullish than in other New Zealand pairs and crosses. This is due to the continuing long-term weakness of the Japanese Yen.
The daily price chart below shows that we have a very solid and very long-term bullish trend here, with the price moving within a symmetrical price channel for a very long period. Symmetrical price channels tend to be more reliable.
Just as we saw in the NZD/USD currency pair, we see today floored by a key support level. This one is very confluent with the round number at ¥95.00.
Bulls might feel cautious about the price now trading near the top of the price channel.
I think trades here can only be considered on the long side, either as a breakout beyond today’s high or following a bearish retracement to ¥95.05 and a bullish bounce there.
Support Levels:
- ¥95.05
- ¥94.15
- ¥92.56
Potential Resistance Levels:
- ¥96.00
- ¥97.00
- ¥98.00
AUD/NZD Forecast: Technical Analysis
The AUD/NZD currency cross fell earlier today to a new 2-week low price before reclaiming some of its losses.
The daily price chart below shows that this currency cross, being comprised of two currencies that are strongly positively correlated, tends to range over the long term.
The price is not far from the top of this range, but it is showing some bearish momentum. However, the bullish momentum in 2024 has been quite strong.
The standout technical feature here is the support level at $1.0862. This is likely to hold if it is tested again today, so a long trade from a bullish bounce there could be a good trade, although it would be unlikely to give a lot of profit.
Support Levels:
- $1.0862
- $1.0759
- $1.0699
Resistance Levels:
- $1.0951
- $1.0987
Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s some of the best New Zealand forex brokers to check out.