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Gold Analysis: Witnessing Decline

  • Gold futures fell in the middle of trading this week after some Federal Reserve officials indicated that the central bank could raise interest rates if economic data requires further tightening.
  • Consequently, the strength of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the yellow metal, pushing prices below $2,400.

Gold Analysis Today 23/5: Witnessing Decline (graph)

According to the platforms of gold trading companies, the price of gold moved down with losses that reached the level of $2375 per ounce, which was stable around it at the time of writing the analysis. In general, the price of gold witnessed a decline this month, which added to its gains since the beginning of the year until now by approximately 15%.

In the same performance, silver prices, the sister commodity to gold, struggled to maintain the level of $31 per ounce. In general, the price of the white metal has skyrocketed, leading to a 29% increase since the beginning of the year until now.

According to the results of the economic calendar data, the Federal Reserve issued the minutes of the policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which lasted two days. However, the summary showed that officials are concerned about inflation and that renewed price pressures have created an “uncertain” policy path. Moreover, many US Federal Reserve officials have even suggested that the institution may pull the trigger on raising interest rates if inflation persists.

“Participants noted that although inflation declined over the past year, there has been a lack of further progress towards the committee’s 2 per cent target in recent months,” the summary said. Added, “Recent monthly data have shown significant increases in the components of inflation in prices of goods and services.”

This week, several US Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the lack of progress on inflation. However, the consensus is that inflation will continue to fall at a slower pace, meaning interest rates may remain higher for longer.

The minutes caused a shock in the stock market arena, as the main indices fell by as much as 0.6%. According to the platforms of Forex currency trading companies, the US dollar index (DXY), which is a measure of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, rose to 104.93, from opening at 104.62. In general, the index has increased by 3.55% since the beginning of the year until now. A strong dollar is usually a bad thing for dollar-denominated goods because it makes them more expensive for foreign investors to buy.

Another factor affecting gold, US Treasury yields rose mostly across the board. The yield on ten-year bonds rose 1.4 basis points to 4.428%, and the yield on two-year bonds rose 4.2 basis points to 4.875%.

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    Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

    The recent profit-taking sell-off in the price of gold is something I have often highlighted as a possibility in the event of a recovery in the US dollar. It is causing gold to relinquish its weekly gains, which had reached the historically high resistance level of $2450 per ounce. Furthermore, continued strength in the US dollar will allow the bears to push the price of gold towards the support levels of $2360 and $2335, respectively.

    Despite this, we still prefer buying gold at every dip. Meanwhile, the downside for gold prices has been capped by renewed trade tensions between the United States and China and concerns over escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially following the recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Elsewhere, measures taken by China to stabilize its crisis-hit real estate sector provide some support for gold prices.

    Ready to trade today’s Gold prediction? Here’s a list of some of the best XAU/USD brokers to check out. 

    Mahmoud Abdallah
    About Mahmoud Abdallah
    Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

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