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EUR/USD Analysis: Eyes on Fed Minutes

  • For four consecutive trading sessions, the EUR/USD has been under selling pressure, pushing it towards the 1.0835 level and settling around the 1.0860 level at the time of writing.
  • Also, the lack of significant economic releases since the start of trading this week is weakening EUR/USD price movements.
  • A break below 1.0790 would be an exit from an upward channel that has formed for EUR/USD recently, supported by weak recent US inflation figures.
  • This moved the pair towards the 1.0895 resistance level, the highest in two months.

EUR/USD Analysis Today 22/5: Eyes on Fed Minutes (graph)

What is the expected EUR/USD price in the coming days?

In this regard, and according to Forex.com, EUR/USD forecasts: "Bending directly under the key 1.0900 level."

According to Forex.com, the EUR/USD exchange rate may soon see a technical move "continued upward" towards the 1.1000 psychological resistance level, as written by Matthew Weller, Head of Research at Forex.com. Looking at the world's most traded currency pair, the EUR/USD is respecting its key technical levels.

After breaking above the confluence of the downtrend line and the 200-day moving average last week, prices rose to the logical resistance at 1.0880 before losing steam at the end of last week. According to forex trading platforms, EUR/USD consolidation trading continued this week, leaving the pair still in a range between resistance in the 1.0880-1.0900 area and support at the 200-day moving average near 1.0800.

A final close above 1.0890 resistance, if seen, would open the door for continued upside towards 1.1000 thereafter.

In general, markets started the trading week a bit sluggish amid low-liquidity trading. Financial centers such as France, Germany, Switzerland, and Canada were out on official holidays. As of this writing, indices are trading higher, and all major currencies are trading within a +/- 0.3% range against the US dollar. With little economic data today, the focus shifted to comments from prominent central bank governors, most notably Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson. Also, echoing the data-dependent cautious expectations of his colleagues, Jefferson noted that it was "too early" to tell whether the recent slowdown in the disinflation process would be long-lasting, but the low April inflation reading was a positive sign.

Overall, he seemed cautiously optimistic that the Fed was on track to achieve a soft-landing economy, with inflation receding to the Fed's 2% target without a significant slowdown in the economy.

Ultimately, market volatility is expected to increase as we move through the middle of the week. Depending on the markets you are trading in, you may want to watch ECB President Lagarde's speech in Frankfurt, followed by a speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey. As well as the UK CPI report, FOMC minutes, UK CPI report, and Nvidia earnings announcement today, Wednesday.

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    EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:

    It is noticeable that the bulls lack the momentum to push the EUR/USD exchange rate above the 1.0900 resistance level, which would confirm the bulls' control. It will provide the momentum to move towards the psychological resistance at 1.1000, confirming the strength and continuation of the upward rebound. If the current selling pressures continue below the 1.0800 level, it will be considered a threat to bullish expectations. Now, all focus will be on the reaction to the announcement of the contents of the minutes from the latest meeting of the US Federal Reserve, as all markets have recently been affected by central banks' signals regarding easing or not.

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    Mahmoud Abdallah
    About Mahmoud Abdallah
    Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
     

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