- The Euro Stoxx 50 initially looked as if it was ready to pull back a bit during the trading session on Thursday but turned around to show signs of strength again.
- It looks as if we are squeezing to the upside, and I would draw your attention to the analysis I did on the Ibex 35 in Spain today, because the pattern looks suspiciously like the Spanish index did just a few weeks ago.
- Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to do everything he can to go higher, and of course this is a great index to take advantage of the overall European Union.
Momentum Still Favors Upside
Looking at the 50-Day exponential moving average near the €4975 level, it’s obvious that it is going to get close to the consolidation area that we have been in for some time and should offer a certain amount of support. Ultimately, the €5100 level above is a significant resistance barrier, and if we can break above that that I think the market could truly take off to the upside. With that being said, the Euro Stoxx 50 market is likely to continue to be very noisy, and I do think that it favors the overall upside.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think does continue to see plenty of reasons to go higher, not the least of which would be the fact that the ECB is likely to cut interest rates in the next month or 2. With this, I think eventually stocks overall will continue to do well, especially if the euro remains relatively cheap. In fact, it is trading right around the 1.09 level, which means that European indices will continue to benefit from overall exports. Short-term dips at this point in time should continue to be buying opportunities, as this market clearly has been bullish for quite a while.
If we did break down below the €4900 level, that could be a negative turn of events, but I would not hold my breath for that to happen. Because of this, I think this is a “long only” market at the moment and therefore I will traded as such.
Potential signal
- I am a buyer of this market right now.
- However, I would have a stop loss at the 4900 level.
- I will be aiming for 5100, and even add to my position at that level to eventually look for 5300.
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