Signals for the Lira Against the Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
This chart produced by the TradingView platform.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.30.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.20.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.70.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order at 32.77.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.98.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 31.95.
Turkish lira Analysis
The US dollar’s trading declined against the Turkish lira during trading at the beginning of the week, as the pair received support after a decision. Currently, investors are awaiting the decision of the Turkish Central Bank last Thursday regarding interest rates, as the bank fixed the interest rate at the same levels at which it raised the interest during the last month’s meeting at 50 percent. After the decision of the Turkish Central Bank, Fitch International commented on the policy of financial tightening that continues until now. Thus, it will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and the improvement in economic policies will support a decline in inflation and the current account deficit. Also, it will work to revive foreign reserves and positively affect the country’s credit rating. Moreover, it is noteworthy that many expectations of financial market analysts have suggested the possibility of the Central Bank of Turkey gradually reducing the interest rate starting from the last quarter of this year, in conjunction with the decline in inflation.
After the bank's decision, investors followed the statements of the Turkish Treasury Minister, Mehmet Simsek, who stated about his country's ability to attract external financing in the long term. Furthermore, the net portfolio outflow reached an estimated $16.8 billion in the period from June 2023 to February 2024, compared to only $2.9 billion in the first five months of last year.
In other news, the official newspaper in the country published a decision by the Ministry of Finance to raise the tax rates on food items in restaurants from 8 to 10 percent and in cafes from 18 to 20 percent.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair has declined, as the pair seeks to break the upward trend line on the daily timeframe, as indicated by the chart. Obviously, this comes after the price settled below the peak recorded earlier this month at levels of 32.88 lira per dollar. At the same time, the price traded above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily timeframe. Meanwhile, the moving between these averages on the four-hour timeframe, signalling a downward correction against the overall upward trend that the pair is experiencing in the long term. In case of a decline, the pair targets support levels concentrated at 32.30 and 32.20 respectively. On the other hand, if the price rises, it targets resistance levels concentrated at 32.50 and 32.87 respectively. Ultimately, the price forecast for the Turkish lira includes an increase for the pair if it settles above the ascending trend line.
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