Signals for the Lira Against the Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Best Buying Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.20.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.99.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.80.
Best Selling Points:
- Place a sell order at 32.82.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.99.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 31.30.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair rose slightly in trading with the return of weekly trading. The weak upward trend continued this month, after the pair hit new record levels last Friday at 32.87 lira per dollar.
Investors followed some new measures announced by the Turkish Ministry of Finance aimed at reducing tax evasion by tracking and inspecting the sources of funds transferred through bank accounts. At the same time, Société Générale Bank analysts issued a report expressing optimism about the future of the Turkish economy in 2024. The report included expectations that Turkey will be the top destination for investors this year, especially with the shift in monetary policy that the Federal Reserve may record in 2024 with the approval of interest rate cuts that could drive investors into emerging markets, especially Turkey, which has tightened monetary policy and raised interest rates to 50 basis points. Also, the report included expectations that the country's trade balance will see some improvement as energy import costs decline in conjunction with an improvement in tourism revenues. As for the lira's path, bank analysts expect the Turkish currency to see some decline in the coming weeks before rising from the second half of the year.
Data-wise, Preliminary data released this morning showed that Turkey's unemployment rate fell by 0.3% in February to 8.7% compared to January, bringing the number of unemployed to around 3 million and 78 thousand.
USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The pair rose in early trading today, at the same slow upward pace. Technically, the pair continues the general upward trend it has been recording, as the pair is based on its movements on an upward trend line on the daily time frame, as shown in the chart. Also, the pair traded above the 50 and 200 moving averages, which are intersecting positively upwards, on the daily time frame, as well as on the four hours, reflecting the general upward trend on the pair. also therefore, if the pair rises, the nearest resistance levels are focused at 32.50 and 32.87, respectively. Furthermore, if the price declines, it targets levels of 32.20 and 31.99, respectively.
Ultimately, the Turkish lira price forecast is for the pair to rise and target the aforementioned resistance levels. Decisively, we recommend adhering to the mentioned recommendations and maintaining capital management rules.
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