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NZD/USD Analysis: Downside Momentum and Nervous Mid-Term Lows Sighted

The NZD/USD has climbed up from lower depths seen this morning, but trading in the currency pair remains vulnerable to nervousness being generated via USD outlooks.

  • Traders of the NZD/USD may be interested in reports such as the Dairy Product Price Index, commodity analysis via domestic resources and other New Zealand focused data, but the currency pair remains part of a USD centric landscape.
  • The NZD/USD has not been able to escape the nervousness being created within financial institutions that do not have a clear outlook regarding U.S Federal Reserve interest rates.

NZD/USD Analysis Today - 03/04: Mid-Term Low (Graph)

The downward trend in the NZD/USD mirrors other major currency pairs as the USD has gained strength. The move to mid-term lows not seen since mid-November 2023 may be alarming, but the prices demonstrated have not come unexpectedly. Having broken through the 0.60000 level last Wednesday and the ability to sustain lower values is not welcomed in New Zealand, but the results are part of a big club that has seen the USD get stronger.

Near-Term Rates and Speculative Positions in the NZD/USD

Traders pursuing the USD/NZD have to make sure they do not allow their bias to enter their mindsets. The currency pair does look oversold and over the mid-term should be able to stage a reversal higher that gains momentum, but timing when a leg upwards will occur that has muscle remains difficult. For the moment NZD/USD traders should continue to look for opportunities from quick hitting trades that feature solid risk management.

Jobs data will come from the U.S the remainder of this week, but the climax will be Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings. While the ADP jobs statistics will be released today and Weekly Unemployment Claims will be published tomorrow, Forex including the NZD/USD is likely to remain choppy until Friday’s important reports. The 0.59405 mark was challenged on Monday, but that took place when light holiday volume dominated the sphere. However, yesterday’s low around 0.59435 was not much better. This morning’s depth of 0.59520 was incrementally better regarding support, but still a rather low price. Support levels remain speculatively intriguing.

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    Looking for Upside Momentum and Swift Trades in the NZD/USD

    • Bullish traders who want to look for upside cannot be blamed. Support levels in the NZD/USD may look enticing as places to ignite buying positions, but solid stop losses need to be used in case these lower depths prove vulnerable again.
    • The overwhelming nervous sentiment in Forex has hit the NZD/USD and it will take some weaker jobs numbers from the U.S on Friday to create a solid run higher. But will that happen?
    • Traders should have realistic quick hitting targets in the short-term. On Friday, the price range of the USD/NZD will get wider and volatility will be seen.

    NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:

    Current Resistance: 0.59775

    Current Support: 0.59685

    High Target: 0.59870

    Low Target: 0.59540

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    Robert Petrucci
    About Robert Petrucci
    Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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