The NZD/USD touched values on Tuesday that had last been seen in the middle of November 2023, this as bearish sentiment has seemingly begun to solidify.
- There are a couple of sayings among Forex traders which are well known, the first being ‘that you do not fight the trend’.
- The second saying is, ‘you do not fight the Fed’. Both insights though perhaps simplistic are often proven to be harsh realities for speculators.
- As of this morning the NZD/USD is near the 0.59225 level with typical fluctuations being demonstrated.
- The downwards momentum in the NZD/USD which has developed over the mid-term cannot be denied.
The NZD/USD touched a low of nearly 0.58600 on late Tuesday. This occurred when Fed Chairman Powell added to the selling pressure in the currency pair, shifting his rhetoric in a public speech from cautiously optimistic about cutting U.S interest rates to suddenly expressing an outward concern regarding inflation once again. The U.S Federal Reserve is now not anticipated to cut its interest rate until perhaps this late summer, if at all. The change in tone from the Fed Chairman has solidified the behavioral sentiment within financial institutions which are clearly anticipating a stronger USD to remain a focal point via transactions.
NZD/USD 0.59000 Level as a Barometer in the Near-Term
Tuesday’s selloff was met with a slight reversal higher, but the buying has not been entirely strong. Yes, the NZD/USD has reestablished its value over the 0.59000 level, but the ratio remains in sight. It appears for the moment that any hopes of maintaining value above the 0.60000 level has lost hope. Intriguingly early this week New Zealand published inflation data which showed Consumer Price Index statistics stronger than anticipated. The sticky inflation in New Zealand also puts the hopes of an interest rate cut within the nation on hold too.
The lower realms of the NZD/USD have been developing incrementally and Monday’s dive below the 0.59500 level is likely going to become a focal point for traders who still cling to the belief the currency pair has been oversold. However, the question is if the NZD/USD can make a push higher in the short-term that could challenge this ratio? Bearish traders could be tempted to use the 0.59300 to 0.59400 range as a testing ground for igniting short positions and bet that the 0.59500 will be stubborn resistance now.
NZD/USD Lower Depths Could be tested in the Near-Term
- The U.S will release weekly Unemployment Claims today; typically this is not a game changer for Forex pairs. Unless there is a major surprise it will not affect the NZD/USD too much.
- It is likely the NZD/USD will remain within its lower realms in the near-term and technical traders may be able to test highs which develop as a place to look for quick hitting moves lower.
- Traders who remain bearish should not get overly ambitious. The 0.58950 mark may prove to be important as a support target for lower depths.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.59350
Current Support: 0.59190
High Target: 0.59440
Low Target: 0.58990
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