My previous GBP/USD signal on 1st April was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level was first reached that day.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%.
- Trades may be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.2588, $1.2558, $1.2538, or $1.2507.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.2710, $1.2732, or $1.2759.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
GBP/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous forecast for the GBP/USD currency pair last Monday that the technical picture was dominated by the strong resistance level at $1.2657, so a short trade from there looked attractive.
This was an OK call insofar as that level held, but it was not even tested.
The technical picture now is seeing a notable bullish development, with a weak breakout above the very key and strong resistance level at $1.2657 which has held for quite a while.
Bulls can take more encouragement from the fact that the US Dollar Index made a bearish reversal from a very key resistance point earlier this week, which has resulted in the Dollar selling off over recent days, and having technical room to move lower.
This opens the door to this currency pair to advance well above $1.2657, with room to rise as high as $1.2710 without reaching another resistance level.
So, I see the best potential opportunity today as a long trade above $1.2657, but a bullish signal is needed to trigger entry – ideally this would be two consecutive higher closes above $1.2663 during today’s London session.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the GBP. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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