- I continue to watch the British Pound against the Swiss franc overall, as this is a pair that I think could enter the headline soon.
- This is mainly due to the fact that there is such a massive interest rate differential between the two currencies.
- After all, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of upward pressure in general, because quite frankly you get paid to hang on to this pair at the end of every day.
That being said, you need to be very cautious with the fact that it is a highly risk sensitive currency pair. In other words, if the attitude is more “risk on”, the reality is that the British pound tends to do much better against the Swiss franc, as the Swiss franc is considered to be a major safety currency.
The Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is quite interesting, because overnight, we had seen the Israelis attack the Iranians, which of course had people running toward safety currency such as the US dollar in the Swiss franc. However, the 200-Day EMA did offer support in this pair, as we learned that the attack was somewhat limited, and we had a perfect “technical bounce” from that level.
It’s worth noting that the 50-Day EMA is approaching the 1.13 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and the bottom of the recent consolidation area. It looks as if we are going to try to recapture the 1.13 level, but I also recognize that as we close out the week it is probably somewhat difficult for traders to hang onto a risky trade as they don’t know what could happen over the next 48 hours. With that, it might be a little bit soft in the short term, but in the longer-term I still like this pair a lot, and I do believe that if we were ever to break above the 1.15 level, is likely that the market truly takes off at that point.
I have no interest in shorting this market, due to the fact that I don’t want to pay to own it, as you would do so on the rollover every day. If we were to break down below the 200-Day EMA, I think at that point in time we would have a major shift in the pair and then we would have to rethink the entire situation.
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