Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0792.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0650.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.0735 and a take-profit at 1.0650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0825.
The EUR/USD pair dived as the US dollar index (DXY) surged to its highest point since November last year. It crashed to a low of 1.0737 on Thursday morning, its lowest point since April 4th.
ECB interest rate decision ahead
The EUR/USD pair continued crashing after the strong US inflation numbers pointed to a potential divergence between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB).
US inflation jumped from 3.2% to 3.5% while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) spiked to 3.8%. There are signs that the country’s inflation will continue rising now that the price of Brent has jumped to $90 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) moved to $86.25.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish tone in the coming meetings. Most economists believe that the bank will leave interest rates unchanged in the coming meetings.
Some analysts also believe that the Fed will even deliver another rate hike later this year. This explains why the US Government Bond yields have jumped sharply. The 10-year bond yields rose to 4.55% while the 30-year jumped to 4.6%.
The next important catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming ECB interest rate decision. Economists expect that the bank will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50%.
The ECB is having some success battling inflation compared to the Fed. Inflation in some European countries like Italy has already moved below the bank’s target of 2.0%. The recent report by Eurostat showed that the headline inflation dropped to 2.4% in March from the previous month’s 2.6%.
At the same time, some European countries have moved into a recession, with many companies and individuals complaining about the tight financial conditions.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair formed a double-top pattern at 1.0883, leading to a sharp crash after the strong US inflation numbers. It crossed below the crucial support level at 1.0792, its lowest swing on April 5th and the neckline of the double-top pattern.
The pair has dropped below the 50-period moving average and the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has drifted downwards and has moved to the oversold level.
Therefore, the pair will likely be highly volatile ahead and after the ECB decision. While the overall trend is bearish, the pair will likely have a dead cat bounce and retest the resistance at 1.0792.
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