Affiliate Disclosure
Affiliate Disclosure DailyForex.com adheres to strict guidelines to preserve editorial integrity to help you make decisions with confidence. Some of the reviews and content we feature on this site are supported by affiliate partnerships from which this website may receive money. This may impact how, where and which companies / services we review and write about. Our team of experts work to continually re-evaluate the reviews and information we provide on all the top Forex / CFD brokerages featured here. Our research focuses heavily on the broker’s custody of client deposits and the breadth of its client offering. Safety is evaluated by quality and length of the broker's track record, plus the scope of regulatory standing. Major factors in determining the quality of a broker’s offer include the cost of trading, the range of instruments available to trade, and general ease of use regarding execution and market information.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Outlook Ahead of NFP and Powell Speech

By Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

Bearish before NFP and Powell's speech. Sell targets at 1.0765, buy-stops at 1.0800. Focus on US inflation data, job numbers, and Fed statements.

Bearish view

  • Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0765.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.0820.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 1.0800 and a take-profit at 1.0850.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.0750.

EUR/USD Signal Today - 01/04: NFP & Powell Outlook (Graph)

The EUR/USD exchange rate rose slightly after last Friday’s US inflation gauge. After tumbling to a monthly low of 1.0768 on Thursday, it rose to 1.0795 as the focus shifts to the upcoming US jobs, PMIs, and statements from key Fed officials.

Key economic data ahead

The EUR/USD pair drifted upwards as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. In a report on Friday, the US said that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rose by 0.3% in February. The core PCE figure rose to 0.3%, meeting analysts estimates.

On a YoY basis, the two numbers rose to 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively. Further, the real consumer spending rose by 0.4%, beating the estimated 0.1%. These numbers signal that inflation is moving gradually to the Fed’s target of 2.0% while the economy is doing well.

The EUR/USD rate will be muted on Monday as most countries are closed for Easter Monday. As such, the volume will be lower than other Mondays.

Top Forex Brokers

1
Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Read Review

The pair is bracing for major economic numbers later this week. In Europe, Eurostat will publish the flash consumer inflation number for March on Tuesday. Economists expect the data to show that the headline CPI dropped to 2.5% while the core CPI narrowed to 3.1%.

This report will come two days after Yannis Stournaras, a member of the governing council, estimated that the bloc would slash rates four times totalling to 100 basis points by the end of the year.

The most important number will come out on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the March non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. Economists believe that the labor market remained tight in March, with the jobless rate set to move below 4%. Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, will also deliver a statement on Wednesday.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend after peaking at 1.0982 in March. It retreated to a low of 1.0788 on Thursday where it formed a small morning star pattern. The pair has remained below the 50-period and 25-period moving averages.

It also slipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, which is a bearish sign. The pair has retested the key resistance level at 1.0795, its lowest swing on February 29th. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is extremely bearish, with the initial target being last week’s low at 1.0768.

Ready to trade our free Forex signals? Here are the top  brokers in Europe to choose from. 

Crispus Nyaga
About Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.
 

Most Visited Forex Broker Reviews