- The euro initially tried to rally a bid during the early hours on Monday, but then drifted a bit lower against the Japanese yen.
- That being said, I still believe that this market eventually goes higher, as we have such a huge interest rate differential between the 2 currencies.
- Granted, I don’t necessarily think that the market shoot straight up in the air, but I do think that it’s only a matter time before the buyers jump back in insert taken advantage of value.
The interest rate differential continues to favor Europe, but even then, you have to keep in mind that the ECB is likely to cut rates later this year. That being said, I still think the Japanese yen remains a bit of a punching bag for the currency markets, and therefore I’m looking for an opportunity to start buying this pair again. I need to see some type of short-term bounce to take advantage of, and then I will get long yet again.
Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan is of course in focus, due to the fact that the Japanese have recently raised interest rates. That being said, the interest rate is still just 0.1%, so I would not read too much into it being tighter down the road. In fact, they have since walked back the idea of raising interest rates to aggressively, so I think you probably have a situation where it’s only a matter of time before traders will continue to punish the Japanese in.
Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA coming into the picture offering a bit of support, and I think at this point in time, it continues to act as a bit of a short-term trendline. I’m simply waiting for some type of short-term bounce to take advantage of so I can get on the “right side of the V” after that bounce, then you have a place from which to place your stop loss. Ultimately, the market I think will revisit the highs, and I do not think that we have seen the swing high for the longer term at this point in time. I have no interest in shorting this market.
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