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BTC/USD Forex Signal: Caught in Narrow Range Between Key Levels

BTC/USD trades narrowly; bearish over $70,000. Long at $69,699/$62,287, short at $66,480/$69,910. Watch for breakout, key US data, and Powell's speech.

My previous BTC/USD signal on 27th March was not triggered.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

  • Risk 0.75% per trade.
  • Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

BTC/USD Signal Today - 03/04: BTC in Key Level Range (Graph)

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $69,699 or $62,287.
  • Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $66,480 or $69,910.
  • Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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    BTC/USD Analysis

    I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis one week ago that the technical picture suggested that the price has topped out at about $71,000 some way below the recent all-time high near $74,000. I saw two consecutive hourly closes below $68,852 as a good potential short trade signal.

    Unfortunately, this was a bad call, as it did set up but would have got you entering a short trade right at the low of the day, so this was definitely a losing trade.

    The technical picture has become a bit more bearish as the price has declined further, although it seems to have found firm support at $64,699. Despite that, there is strong resistance just overhead at $66,480, which seems to be succeeding at holding down the price.

    The current price action is stuck within this narrow range, but a productive approach could be to wait for a breakout – bullish above $66,480, and bearish below $64,699. 

    Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by US ISM Services PMI at 3pm and Fed Chair Powell speaking at 5:10pm.

    Ready to trade our daily Bitcoin signals? Here’s our list of the best Bitcoin brokers worth checking out.

    Adam Lemon
    About Adam Lemon

    Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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