Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take profit at 73,742.
- Add a stop-loss at 67,500.
- Timeline: 1-3 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 69,000 and a take-profit at 68,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 72,000.
Bitcoin joined American stocks in a deep dive on Monday as a risk-off sentiment prevailed in the market. The BTC/USD pair dived to 68,700, down from the weekend high of almost 72,000. It remains much lower than the YTD high of 73,500.
Risk-off sentiment
The BTC/USD pair retreated on Monday as most risk assets dropped. In the United States, most stock indices dropped sharply, with the Dow Jones shedding over 280 points and the Nasdaq 100 erasing 15 points.
In the bond market, the 10-year and 30-year yield rose to 4.32% and 4.46%, respectively. The US dollar index, on the other hand, jumped by 45 basis points to $104.73, its highest level in months.
This price action happened after the US published strong manufacturing PMI data. According to the ISM, the country's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in March from February's 47.8. The PMI reading was higher than the median estimate of 48.5.
These numbers are important for Bitcoin and other assets because of the implication of the Federal Reserve. The bank is contending with a strong US economy, which has avoided a hard landing.
It is also confronting stubbornly high inflation in the country. The most recent report showed that the country’s inflation rose to 3.1% in February while the core CPI moved to 3.8%, almost double the Fed's target of 2.0%.
Therefore, the BTC/USD pair will likely react to the upcoming statements by several Federal Reserve officials like Mary Daly, Loretta Mester, and John Williams. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will have a speech on Wednesday.
The other important BTC/USD news will be the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which will happen later this month. Halving will reduce the block rewards, which will have an impact on supply at a time when Bitcoin supply in exchanges is falling.
BTC/USD forecast
The BTC/USD pair has moved sideways since last week. It has remained between the resistance at 71, 927 and the support at 68,000.
On the daily chart, the pair has remained above the 50-day Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) and the Ichimoku cloud.
There are signs that the pair is forming a double-top pattern whose neckline is at the March 20th low of 60,813. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bearish divergence pattern.
Therefore, more upside will be confirmed if the price moves above last week’s high of 71,927. If this happens, the pair will likely rise and retest the all-time high of 73,740.
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