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AUD/USD Forex Signal: Aussie May Rebound Today

AUD/USD may rebound today, with pivotal support at $0.6480. Previous bullish bounce was profitable. Today's signals suggest short and long trade ideas, focusing on hourly price action reversals.

My previous signal last Thursday produced a profitable long trade from the bullish bounce at $0.6488.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

  • Risk 0.75%
  • Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

AUD/USD Signal Today - 02/04: AUD May Rebound Today (Graph)

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6539, $0.6561, $0.6577, or $0.6590.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6480, $0.6456, or $0.6391.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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    AUD/USD Analysis

    I wrote in my previous forecast last Thursday that the AUD/USD currency pair was most likely to produce a profitable opportunity from a long trade from the supportive area at $0.6488 - $0.6480.

    This was a good call as it produced a profitable trade.

    The price was not able to rise much higher from there, and has again fallen back to this area, as the currency pair continues its consolidation.

    We also see a new lower resistance level at $0.6539, which gives the technical picture a slight bearish tilt.

    Despite this slightly bearish picture, there are two good reasons to expect a bullish rebound:

    1. The strength of the supportive area around $0.6480, and
    2. The general buoyancy of risky assets, which will surely see the Australian Dollar recover once markets process the more dovish recent tilt of the RBA, and
    3. The US Dollar Index faces strong overhead resistance, meaning it is more likely that the support at $0.6480 will hold.

    The best approach today therefore looks likely to be waiting for a bullish bounce at $0.6480, then entering a long trade.

    If the price gets established later below $0.6480, say with two consecutive lower closes below that level, then that will be a bearish sign.

    There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the AUD. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of JOLTS Job Openings data at 3pm London time.

    Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Check out this list of the best Australian Forex brokers worth reviewing.

    Crispus Nyaga
    About Crispus Nyaga
    Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

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