- The Australian dollar plunged overnight as we continue to see a lot of US dollar strength in general.
- However, with the Israeli attack on Iran, we started to see a huge run to the greenback in order to find some sense of safety.
- That being said, we have seen a complete turnaround as the extent of the attack became clear to be less impressive.
- At this point, was more or less posturing by the Israelis, and therefore traders started to bet on the idea that perhaps the war won’t escalate.
All that being said, this is a pair that has been falling for some time, so I still think it’s going to be easier to sell in this market than to buy it. The 0.6450 level above continues to be important, as it previously had been support. At this point in time, if we were to break above there would be a very bullish sign. But I think any rally at this point in time more likely than not will be a selling opportunity on signs of exhaustion, and therefore that’s the trade set up I’ll be looking forward to.
Interest Rates
A lot of this comes down to the interest rate differential between the two economies and of course the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely to stay “tighter for longer”, as the inflation figures in America continue to show that the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work to do. Furthermore, I think a lot of people will be interested in perhaps trying not to be overexposed in one direction or the other heading into the weekend, because quite frankly we don’t know what’s going to happen, and there will be 48 hours that you will be able to touch your position. Because of this, I think it’s a situation where a lot of people are trying to flatten out positioning to protect themselves.
If we were to break down from here, the 0.63 level could be a target. On the other hand, if we were to turn around a break above the 0.6450 level, then we could go looking to the 50-Day EMA above, which is at roughly 0.6550. Regardless, this is a market that I think continues to favor the greenback more than anything else, and as a result I am looking for signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies that I can fade.
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