- Since the start of today's trading session on Thursday, the USD/JPY exchange rate has been falling sharply as investors continue to bet that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will start cutting interest rates soon.
- According to forex trading platforms, the USD/JPY pair fell to a low of 148.40, its lowest level since February 8 this year.
- Recently, it has fallen by more than 1.52% to its highest point this year.
In general, the USD/JPY pair continued its strong downward trend after a series of encouraging economic data from Japan. According to the Economic Calendar data, a report issued by the statistics agency stated that average cash income jumped to 2.0% in January, exceeding the average estimate of 1.3%. Also, overtime wages rose 0.40% while total wage income jumped 2.0%. therefore, these numbers mean that the country is performing relatively well even after falling into recession in the fourth quarter. They also imply that Japan may see a rise in inflation in the coming months.
More importantly, these reports are likely to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade. Raising the interest rate will be important because it will help the country shift from negative interest rates. Thus, that could happen as soon as March 19.
The BoJ's rate hike would come at a time when other central banks around the world are considering cutting rates. In a statement on Wednesday, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the bank is waiting for more data to decide when to cut US interest rates. Overall, most economists are now pricing in at least three US rate cuts this year in an attempt to improve the slowing economy. Moreover, the recent economic data such as consumer confidence and factory orders came in below estimates.
The USD/JPY pair also fell after data showed that foreign investors are flocking to the Japanese market. Foreigners bought a net 283-billion-yen worth of stocks in February, after selling 206 billion yen the previous month. They bought a net 484-billion-yen worth of bonds, after selling 250 billion the previous month. Recent data shows that Japanese stocks have been rising, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching an all-time high.
Looking ahead, the next major news for USD/JPY will be Jerome Powell's second day of testimony before Congress. Also, the US will release nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.
USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:
Based on the performance on the four-hour timeframe chart, we see that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) has reached the resistance level of 150.86, struggling to move above it since February 13th. Currently, it has collapsed below the key support level at 149.21, its lowest level since February 29th. Technically, the USD/JPY pair has crossed below the 50 and 25-period moving averages. It's worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered extremely oversold territory at 18. Therefore, the path of least resistance for the pair is downward, with the next target at 146.91, its lowest swing on February 1st. On the other hand, the psychological resistance at 150.00 will remain crucial for the bulls to regain control of the trend.
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