- Gold has pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Friday, as it looks like we have plenty of noise out there to continue to throw markets around.
- That being said, gold is a market that is still very bullish from a longer term standpoint, and I have no real interest in trying to short the market anytime soon.
External Factors
The US dollar will have its part to play, but it's also worth noting that there are other factors out there driving gold at the moment beyond the typical US dollar negative correlation. For example, you have central banks around the world jumping in and buying gold hand over fist. With that being the case, I think that continues to provide a little bit of a cushion for the market to go higher over the longer term. I don't necessarily have any interest in trying to short gold not only based on that but the fact that interest rates are going to be dropping. The market has been extraordinarily bullish until the last couple of sessions, so I think this is just a matter of working off some of the excess froth from the big move higher.
Eventually though, I do think that we have a scenario where traders will come in and pick up value every time it appears, with a particular interest in the $2,150 level. That scenario will continue to offer support as it had last week, but even if we were to break down below there, the 50-day EMA and the $2,075 level both offer support as well.
It's probably only a matter of time before we make it to the $2,500 level, as market participants continue to do whatever they can to protect wealth in a very uncertain environment. I like buying dips, I have no interest in shorting. In fact, I think the gold market could be one of the biggest performers this year, given enough time.
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