- The pound hit a seven-month high against the dollar on US wage slowdown, as the US dollar was sold off at the end of last week.
- This is after data showed a sharp slowdown in US wages in February, raising the prospect of a mid-year rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
- Consequently, this gave bulls a good opportunity to push the GBP/USD currency pair towards the 1.2893 resistance level, its highest since July 2023. Currently, it is stabilizing around the 1.2850 level at the time of writing the analysis.
According to the results of the economic calendar data, the non-farm payrolls report showed that the US economy added 275,000 new jobs in February, easily beating the 200,000 expected, which was a result that was supposed to boost the US dollar. However, the devil is in the details, and the pound-dollar exchange rate rose to its highest level in seven months after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the previous two months' figures by a large amount of 167,000. In addition, the US unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7% previously, above expectations of 3.7%, indicating that more people are entering the labor market, which could affect wages.
In fact, it was the wage growth figures that really drove the market into action, with wage growth slowing to 0.1% on a monthly basis after large monthly gains of 0.5% in January “which itself was a downward revision”. The market was looking for a reading of 0.3%. According to analysts, "The markets turned their backs on the dollar last week: It was an appetizer for the weaker services PMI data, ahead of Powell's main testimony in which he left the door open for a US rate cut this year. Even the headline non-farm payrolls figure of adding 275,000 jobs was not enough to save dollar sentiment. This is partly because average hourly earnings were below expectations."
Meanwhile, the annual rate of US wage growth slowed to 4.3% from 4.5% in January, which is lower than the 4.4% that the market expected. In general, cold wage pressures indicate that demand in the US economy will decline to match supply, which means lower inflation rates, which is something the US Federal Reserve wants to see before cutting interest rates. For his part, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told US lawmakers last week: “We are not far away” from a situation in which he and his colleagues are confident that inflation will fall to the 2.0% target.
Prior to the release of the economic data, the dollar was already under pressure, as recent weaker-than-expected US data had led markets to increase bets that the Fed would be in a position to cut rates in mid-year. This narrative could provide further upside for the pound in the coming weeks, especially if US inflation data this week shows further slowing in inflation rates.
This week, Britain will take center stage in the region, with wage data likely to show a strong pace of increase that will keep the Bank of England cautious. In a sign of the tightness of the labor market, the central bank itself was forced to give its employees inflation-matching pay rises. On Tuesday, UK monthly GDP figures due out is expected to show a small increase after falling in December, underscoring how the economy is still struggling. Finally, the Bank of England is due to release its own survey of consumer inflation expectations on Friday.
GBPUSD Expectations and Analysis Today:
We expect the GBP/USD exchange rate to maintain its current rebound gains until reacting to consecutive British data announcements alongside US inflation figures. As mentioned before, the psychological resistance at 1.3000 will remain crucial for further bullish control over the general direction of the GBP/USD pair. Conversely, based on the performance on the daily chart above, support levels at 1.2720 and 1.2600 will remain critical to dissipate upward hopes and strengthen bearish control over the trend.
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