Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6550.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6680.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6620 and a take-profit at 0.6700.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6550.
The AUD/USD pair has pulled back as traders wait for the upcoming US inflation report. After peaking at 0.6666 on Friday after the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data, the pair pulled back to 0.6600.
US inflation data ahead
The AUD/USD pair retreated slightly after the latest Australian electronic card retail sales, building approvals, and business confidence data. These numbers confirmed that the Australian economy was doing modestly well.
The biggest catalyst for the pair will be the upcoming US inflation report, which will play a role in next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Econonists expect these numbers to show that the country’s inflation remained stubbornly high in February. The median estimate is that the headline CPI rose from 0.3% in January to 0.4% in February. They also expect it to remain at 3.1% on a YoY basis.
The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, is expected to rise by 0.3% after rising by 0.4% in the previous month. Analysts expect it to drop from 3.9% to 3.7%.
These numbers means that inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target, signaling that the bank will likely leave rates unchanged in its March meeting.
The latest inflation report will come a few days after the US released mixed jobs numbers. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added 275k jobs in February, an increase from the previous month’s 229k. The unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9%.
In a statement last week, Jerome Powell hinted that the Fed was getting more confident about conditions for rate cuts. He believes that inflation will gradually continue falling in the coming months.
Therefore, most analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June this year. They believe that it will slash rates at least three times in 2024.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair formed an inverted hammer candlestick pattern on Friday. In most cases, this is one of the most bearish signs. The upper side of this candle was at 0.6668. It has now pulled back to the psychological point at 0.6600.
The pair is between the lower and first support levels of the Andrews Pitchfork tool. It has also moved slightly below the crucial support level at 0.6622, the highest swing on January 30th.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as bears target the 50-day moving average point at 0.6560.
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