Gold futures retreated at the start of the last trading week of February, as the futures market continued to reject expectations of the first pivot by the US Federal Reserve in the current tightening cycle. Overall, investors are also bracing for two key reports this week: US GDP and inflation. According to trading, the price of gold today stabilizes around the resistance level of $2036 per ounce. In general, gold prices achieved weekly gains of about 1% and decreased by 1.4% since the beginning of the year to date.
On the other hand, the prices of silver, the sister commodity of gold, fell to below $23 per ounce. Generally, the price of white metal decreased by 3.7% last week, adding to its loss since the beginning of the year, which amounted to about 6%. In general, metal market prices declined at the beginning of the trading week amid expectations that monetary authorities will delay further US interest rate cuts. A group of Federal Reserve policymakers indicated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could continue to be patient and keep US interest rates high for a longer period.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are expecting a 52% chance of a US interest rate cut in June. This starkly contradicts previous expectations of a rate cut in early March. As a result, this has led to an increase in yields on US Treasury bonds, with the yield on ten-year bonds reaching 4.27%. Also, the yield on two-year bonds rose by two basis points to 4.71%, while the yield on thirty-year bonds remained stable at 4.38%.
As is known, gold is sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates because it can affect the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Meanwhile, investors will be watching two key data points this week. According to economic calendar data, the first will be the second estimate of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter. It is still expected to be 3.3%. The second is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is expected to rise by 0.3%, with the Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile energy and food components, expected to increase by 0.4%.
According to performance, the weaker US dollar failed to help the yellow metal. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, fell to 103.84, from opening at 103.94. Last week, the price of the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.5% but is still up by 2.5% year to date. Usually, A falling US dollar is a good thing for dollar-denominated goods because it makes them cheaper for foreign investors to buy.
As for other metal markets, copper futures fell to $3.828 per pound. Also, Platinum futures fell to $884.90 an ounce and Palladium futures fell to $968.00 per ounce.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
There is no change in our technical view of the performance of the gold price today, as the general trend is still upward. According to the performance on the daily chart below, movement for several trading sessions in narrow ranges technically heralds a strong movement in one of the two directions, and the results of the important American economic data this week will have a strong reaction to the performance. The price of the US dollar, and therefore the price of gold, may be steady for strong upcoming movements. Currently, the nearest resistance levels for gold are $2055 and $2070, respectively, which may enable bulls to gain more control. On the other hand, as we mentioned before, there will be no reversal of the current general trend without moving towards the support levels of 2000 and 1985 dollars per ounce, as is the performance over that time period.
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