- The USD/ZAR was trading near the 18.64400 ratio on Friday, and had displayed the ability to track lower since making a high on the 22nd of January in a rather consistent manner.
- However, the lows which the USD/ZAR was trading this past Thursday and into Friday were suddenly hit with the results from the U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings coming in much stronger than anticipated.
- The USD/ZAR went into the weekend near the 18.89000 ratio.
Upon opening early this morning the USD/ZAR saw an initial selloff, but has reversed slightly higher and is near the 18.91150 ratio with the typical fluctuations occurring. The move higher on Friday in the USD/ZAR correlated to the broad Forex markets as global financial institutions once again had to adjust their short-term thinking regarding the value of the USD.
Near-Term Resistance Test of the USD/ZAR
The current value of the USD/ZAR is testing resistance levels seen from the 24th until the 26th of January, this when the currency pair came off of its apex highs traded just two days before. Short-term speculators today will have a wagering decision to make regarding the capabilities of the USD/ZAR; certainly higher values have been tested in the recent past. However, from a speculative consideration some traders may believe the USD/ZAR has been overbought.
Yet stepping in front of the upwards trend which reappeared with fast price velocity on Friday would be dangerous. The USD/ZAR will continue to move in a USD centric fashion today and global financial institutions will react to the U.S jobs data results from Friday in Forex as today progresses and rebalance their thinking.
Risk appetite remains rather aggressive in U.S equities; the question for short-term traders is where U.S Treasury yields will gravitate. If financial institutions were able to digest last Friday’s surprising jobs numbers and rest a little better this weekend, perhaps there may be a slight erosion of USD strength ahead, but that is speculative.
Short-Term Wagers in USD/ZAR and Caution
Short-term traders in the USD/ZAR should be conservative today and use solid risk management. While it may be tempting to bet on downside momentum reemerging, it may be overly optimistic that today will produce a strong reversal lower.
- The USD/ZAR 18.90000 mark may act as a magnate in the short-term for traders.
- Sellers of the USD/ZAR should not get overly ambitious today and be content with quick hitting trades aiming for take profit targets.
- Anticipating choppy reversals today in the USD/ZAR seems like a logical plan.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.92900
Current Support: 18.90100
High Target: 18.95960
Low Target: 18.88300
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