GBP/USD Analysis: Crucial Trading Week Ahead

Crucial trading week as pair tests 1.2643. Positive UK data, global market optimism, and Chinese stimulus hopes bolster GBP. Awaiting BoE statements and US inflation data, with key resistance at 1.2775 in focus.

  • Despite recent selling pressure, overall British data flows have been broadly positive, supporting the British pound. Global stock market sentiment remains strong, especially amid hopes of Chinese stimulus measures, which have also bolstered the British currency.
  • Over the past four trading sessions, the GBP/USD pair has attempted to rebound, with gains not exceeding the 1.2643 level.
  • This recovery comes after the pair experienced strong selling pressure last week, pushing it towards the support level at 1.2518 following better-than-expected US job figures, confirming the strength of the US economy despite the Federal Reserve's tightening path. 

GBP/USD Analysis Today - 12/02: Crucial Trading Week Ahead (Graph)

On the economic front, Halifax reported that UK house prices rose by 1.3% in January 2024, following a 1.1% increase in the previous month and surpassing the consensus forecast for a 0.8% monthly increase, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Overall, prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the strongest increase since January 2023. Commenting on the figures, Kim Kienert, Managing Director at Halifax Mortgages, noted that "the recent reduction in mortgage interest rates by lenders amidst increasing competition, coupled with fading inflationary pressures and a still flexible labor market, contributed to increased confidence among buyers and sellers. This has led to a positive start to the housing market for 2024." 

However, caution remains relatively high regarding expectations. Also, challenges related to affordability are likely to persist, and further modest declines cannot be ruled out amidst broader economic uncertainty. 

In the same regard, the Purchasing Managers' Index for the construction sector in Britain improved to a reading of 48.8 for the month of January from a reading of 46.2 in the previous month and higher than the agreed upon expectations of a reading of 47.2. According to Tim Moore, director of economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey; “UK construction companies look increasingly optimistic that the worst may soon be behind them as recession risks fade and interest rate cuts loom on the horizon.” 

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On another level, RBC Capital Markets still expects the Bank of England to be cautious in cutting interest rates. He reported that following the shift in MPC rhetoric, our economists now expect the Bank of England to begin cutting interest rates in August and cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points to 4.25% by 2024. Although the size is similar to the market’s pricing of -97 basis points by 2024. By the end of the year, this would still mean that the Bank of England would start cutting interest rates later than the Fed and the European Central Bank

Moreover, the bank expects that an interest rate cut by the Bank of England later will help support the pound. Also, ING still expects the pound to lose strength this year as the Bank of England cuts interest rates. 

GBPUSD Expectations and Analysis Today: 

According to the performance on the daily time frame chart, there was a bearish breach of the bullish flag for the price of the GBP/USD. Technically, the stability below the support level of 1.2600 will give the bears the opportunity to move further downwards, and buying the pound sterling dollar will not be considered again without moving towards the support levels of 1.2550. and 1.2430, respectively. On the other hand, over the same time period, and as we mentioned before, resistance 1.2775 will remain important for bulls to have strong control over the trend. 

Today, GBP/USD will be affected by new statements from the Governor of the Bank of England ahead of a package of important British economic data throughout the week, in addition to anticipation of the announcement of US inflation numbers. Also, the performance of global financial markets and investor sentiment will have an impact on the performance of the pound sterling price. 

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Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.