- The EUR/USD went into the weekend near the 1.07830 ratio. This result may actually feel like a good achievement for bullish traders of the EUR/USD.
- A low for the week was demonstrated on Monday and Tuesday when the EUR/USD traded near the 1.07225 price, this depth has not been seen since the 8th of December.
- The trend lower in the EUR/USD since touching a high of nearly 1.11415 on the 28th of December has begun to feel grim, leaving traders who prefer to seek upside in the EUR/USD likely quite miserable.
The ability of the EUR/USD to climb higher the past few days and finish last week actually accomplishing a higher value will not start any parades in the European Union. Germany continues to receive plenty of negative attention regarding the lackluster health of its economy and lagging manufacturing sector. The ECB is now under a darker shadow too, this as the central bank knows it will face difficult questions regarding its reluctance to cut its interest rate sooner rather than later.
Correlation to the USD Remain Intact for EUR/USD
Traders also need to remember that the negative economic data coming from Germany and other European sphere is important, but does not stop the EUR/USD from trading within a USD centric mode. Financial institutions which bought the EUR/USD rapidly in December have certainly become more cautious, this has been seen in the global Forex markets too where the USD has gathered strength.
Traders did in fact see a run upwards in the EUR/USD on from Wednesday into Friday of last week. The EUR/USD did finish within sight of its short-term highs. An apex of 1.07950 was challenged on Friday before selling came into the currency pair, but the ability to move within a sphere that could imagine the 1.08000 level once again being targeted may have provided some optimism for bullish traders. The question is what will happen this coming week for the EUR/USD?
Lower Range of the EUR/USD and Choppy Conditions Prevail
While questions mount about the European Central Bank’s inability to move without the seemingly needed approval of other central banks and Germany’s economic struggles, EUR/USD traders also have their eyes of U.S data and the Federal Reserve. Important U.S inflation and retail sales numbers will be published this week. While financial institutions are worried about the timetable the Fed will implement regarding interest rate cuts, the change to a more dovish monetary policy from the U.S central bank is still expected.
- The move upwards which was demonstrated last week after early lows likely shows that financial institutions believe EUR/USD mid-term support levels are still durable.
- Existing outlooks still continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the late spring.
- The 1.07600 to 1.07400 support ratios for near-term traders should be watched. If the higher support prices prove durable this could spark short-term buying tests.
- Tuesday’s U.S Consumer Price Index numbers will be important for the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.07280 to 1.08290
The EUR/USD has struggled lower since early this year, but its price action does correlate to other major currency pairs. The ability of the EUR/USD to climb upwards last week from lows should not be taken as a green light to become an overly aggressive buyer quite yet of the currency pair. Financial institutions likely want to see more reasons why they should start to become more bullish. A sustained move above the 1.07900 early this week might be viewed as positive.
If the U.S inflation numbers this week come in below expectations this could help spark buying. However, choppy conditions which have been on full display the past month may continue this week and EUR/USD traders need to practice caution as price equilibrium is fought over. If U.S economic data comes in mixed showing stubborn inflation and stronger consumer spending, this could keep the EUR/USD within its bearish price range and testing support.
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