- When January’s trading in the USD/ZAR started the currency pair was near the 18.49000 mark.
- The USD/ZAR had come off lows created a couple of times in December near the 18.20000 vicinity, with outliers also being seen beneath this ratio.
- Confidence in the South African Rand seemed to be showing signs of life as USD centric trading also provided some helpful weakness, thus creating a rather solid bearish trend for the USD/ZAR until late in the last week of December.
However the USD/ZAR like all other major currency pairs began to experience reversals in early January as USD strength started to ignite. Financial institutions definitely showed they believed the USD had been oversold in the broad Forex market, and the USD/ZAR saw momentum start to develop which correlated well with other major currency pairs.
However, the upwards climb in the USD/ZAR showed some troubling signs early in January when the 18.95000 ratio was challenged on the 5th of the month. This was a reminder that trading in the USD/ZAR was not only volatile, but also capable of producing dangerous price velocity upwards when financial institutions and their corporate clients became nervous because of economic considerations in South Africa.
More Violent Reversals in the USD/ZAR and a Lack of Confidence
The highs from early January did turn into a reversal lower, and by the 8th of January the USD/ZAR was testing the 18.52000 price ratio which seems to have been interpreted by financial institutions as a solid support ratio. Until the 16th of January a rather polite price range was seen in the USD/ZAR, which explored highs of nearly 18.70000 and slightly above, but returned to support around the 18.60000 to 18.58000 prices rather consistently.
However on the 17th of January buying started to build momentum and the 19.0000 level was again challenged and surpassed. From the 17th until the 24th of January the 19.00000 was not only kept in sight, but highs around the 19.20000 level were challenged. While the USD had been strong against all major currencies during this time, the ‘extra’ price momentum upwards in the USD/ZAR seemed to be a sign of additional nervousness in financial institutions.
A USD/ZAR Return to Lower Realms and Nervous Correlations
Speculators need to remain cautious regarding the South African Rand because there continued to be occasions when domestic economic concerns create nasty price velocity. However, the USD/ZAR has turned lower again and is traversing a price which correlates to known support which can be seen on one month January technical charts, but cautious sentiment should be acknowledged.
- The Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement on the 31st of January will cause volatility as February trading begins in the USD/ZAR.
- Support levels should be monitored, the USD/ZAR has shown the ability to trade lower, but bearish traders may want to see the 18.70000 penetrated and values sustained beneath the ratio.
- Financial institutions have shown cautious tendencies in the USD/ZAR and these are likely to remain. Support levels may be viewed with skepticism and cause sudden reversals higher to develop.
USD/ZAR Outlook for February 2024:
Speculative price range for USD/ZAR is 18.49100 to 19.13200
The month of January was volatile for the USD/ZAR and speculators and financial institutions are likely going to take a cautious approach with the currency pair in February. Technical price ranges should be viewed with skepticism by short-term traders and the ability of sudden moves in the USD/ZAR to be sparked should not be discounted. But even though nervousness is high in the USD/ZAR because of domestic economic concerns which continue to be battled in South Africa, the currency pair has been able to correlate often with USD centric trading which offers speculative intrigue.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement to end January will likely not offer many surprises, and this may continue to allow the USD/ZAR to trade within its known price range. However, this range has proven to be rather wide and fast. Traders should use risk management at all times when trading the USD/ZAR to protect against sudden gyrations.
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