- The USD/JPY is near the 147.750 ratio as of this writing, a high late on Wednesday in the currency pair touched the 148.510 mark.
- The steady advance of the USD/JPY has provided another dose of tough lessons for stubborn speculators who are unwilling to acknowledge existing trends.
- On the 2nd of January the USD/JPY was trading near the 141.500 vicinity and many people may have been wagering that further downside price action would be seen in the currency pair.
However, instead of traversing lower the USD/JPY turned bullish and is now within the vicinity of prices it traded in the first week of December 2023. Traders who remain with bearish perspective may want to look at one and three month technical charts to understand the size of the reversal higher. Stubborn traders who have continued to wager on short-term bearish perspectives may want to consider simply sitting on the sidelines for a little while, this in order to let the USD/JPY momentum upwards start to show less price velocity.
USD/JPY Risk Appetite and Behavioral Sentiment Contradictions
Risk appetite among global investors has continued to be demonstrated, but some caution has certainly developed the past week. The Nikkei 225 Index remains within values not seen since the early 1990’s. U.S equity indices also remain highly valued. However after the bearish momentum that was exhibited from the middle of November until late December in the USD/JPY, the currency pair has suddenly started to move upwards again.
While the U.S Federal Reserve is perceived to be leaning towards a more dovish monetary policy, meaning it will likely cut interest rates, the Bank of Japan does not seem ready to change its monetary policy. Japanese economic data remains lackluster and while there have been some positive signs, not enough momentum upwards regarding inflation and growth have occurred yet in Japan. This puts the Bank of Japan in a position in which it will likely continue to practice its minus/zero interest rate policy.
USD/JPY Short-Term Wagers and Speculative Thoughts
It appears for the time being many financial institutions believe the USD/JPY had been oversold going into January. The move upwards the past two weeks cannot be debated. The question is when they may come to the conclusion the USD/JPY has now been overbought.
- Short-term traders who still believe the USD/JPY price will begin to reverse lower again should be careful about fighting the current trend.
- USD/JPY upside might look limited, but resistance levels continue to show they have been rather vulnerable.
USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 147.980
Current Support: 147.675
High Target: 148.550
Low Target: 147.240
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