- Trading last week was mostly bullish for the performance of the USD/JPY, where it surged towards the resistance level of 146.41.
- Obviously, this is the highest since a month ago, before closing the trades stabilizing around the level of 144.90.
- Recently, the US dollar continued to gain positive momentum regarding the future policy of the Federal Reserve, while bets increase that the Bank of Japan will not be in a hurry to start tightening its monetary policy.
At the end of last week, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December contradicted expectations (monthly) with a recorded change of -0.1%. also, the annualized PPI fell below the expected change by 1.3%, with an actual change of 1%. On the other hand, the PPI excluding food and energy recorded an estimated change of 1.9% with an actual change of 1.8% (yearly basis). Moreover, the monthly adjusted PPI fell to less than 0.2% with a change of 0%.
Overall, the inflation rate in the United States accelerated at the end of 2023, driven by stubborn service costs, while the prolonged decline in commodity prices faded. Moreover, there was a considerable surprise in the so-called core goods, excluding energy and food, with rising prices for used cars and clothing, despite promotional activity at the end of the year. Furthermore, prices paid to American producers continued to decline in December, prompting traders to increase bets on the strength of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in the United States this year. Moreover, categories within the Producer Price Index that directly feed into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge were mostly weak.
In Japan, the Eco Watchers Current Expectations Survey for December beat expectations of 49.9 with a change of 50.7. On Thursday, Japan's non-seasonally adjusted current account balance for November exceeded the expected balance of 2,385.1 billion yen with a balance of 1,925.6 billion yen. Bank lending performance for December on annual basis exceeded expectations of 2.7% with a change of 3.1%. Earlier in the same week, November cash Labor earnings beat expectations (y/y) of 1.5% with a change of 0.2%.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The recent bounce has pushed USD/JPY near the 100-hour moving average line. As a result, the currency pair avoided falling to the oversold levels of the 14-hour RSI. In the near term, and according to the performance on the hourly chart, it appears that the USD/JPY currency pair is trading within a descending channel. However, the 14-hour RSI has rebounded recently to avoid falling into oversold levels. Therefore, the bulls will target extended bounces at around 145.36 or higher at 145.81 resistance. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce on profits at around 144.37 or lower at the 143.90 support.
In the long term, and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the USD/JPY currency pair is trading within an upward channel. Also, the 14-day RSI continues to support a long-term bullish bias as it approaches overbought levels. Consequently, the bulls will look to ride the current series of gains towards 146.50 or higher to the 148.30 resistance. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce on potential pullbacks at around 142.90 or lower at the 140.93 support.
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