The improvement in US job numbers stronger than all expectations helped the USD/JPY bulls rush towards the 145.98 resistance level. Clearly, it’s the highest resistance level for the currency pair in nearly a month, and it stabilizes around the 144.30 level at the beginning of this week’s trading. Prior to trading in the first week of 2024, the Japanese yen ended the year on the rise, as selling operations on the US Dollar Index (DXY) gained strength. Recently, the US dollar/Japanese yen “USD/JPY)” exchange rate fell to a low of 140.80 on Friday, its lowest level since August and well below the year-to-date high of 151.80.
In General, the Japanese Yen is the Currency to Watch in 2024.
USD/JPY will be the key exchange rate to watch in 2024 as investors continue to monitor the actions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Also, the bank maintained a relatively dovish tone in 2023 even as other central banks raised interest rates.
In the United States of America, the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates to their highest point in more than two decades. Likewise, the European Central Bank pushed interest rates to their highest level ever. Other central banks such as the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) also raised interest rates in 2023. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates in the negative zone. The only hawkish thing happened a few months ago when it widened the range of its 10-year bond yields.
Therefore, traders will focus on what the Bank of Japan will do in 2024. Some economists see the bank raising interest rates, a move that will see it emerge from the sub-zero level. If this is true, it will happen at a time when other banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will cut interest rates. In its latest decision, the Federal Reserve indicated three cuts in US interest rates in 2024, and analysts believe it could achieve more cuts during the year. Shorty, officials are relieved that inflation in America is on a downward trend.
Meanwhile, the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan will also occur at a time when inflation in Japan is moving lower. The latest data revealed that Japanese inflation fell sharply in November and that this trend could continue. Core CPI came in at 2.5%, the slowest growth rate since 2022. On the other hand, the US dollar ended its worst year since the beginning of the pandemic, as Wall Street markets increased bets that the Federal Reserve is scheduled to lower US interest rates in 2024. After being affected by false starts calling for an end to the system of raising interest rates followed by the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg's dollar gauge has fallen 2.7% this year in the largest annual decline for the US currency since 2020.
Obviously, a large part of the decline in the fourth quarter was due to increasing bets that the US Federal Reserve will ease its policy in 2024 as the US economy slows. Therefore, this weakens the appeal of the dollar as other central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer.
Now, Swap traders are considering a cut in US interest rates by at least 150 basis points, with the first cut coming in March. This is up from less than 100 basis points in mid-November and double what policymakers expected at their last meeting. Among speculative traders, dollar positions have become more bearish since the Fed's December meeting.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The USD/JPY pair is still trading inside an upward channel that formed recently. A break above the resistance level of 145.80 would encourage the bulls to push for further gains. However, a return to the support level of 142.70, as seen on the daily chart above, would be a threat to the channel. Overall, the fate of the USD/JPY pair will depend on the future policies of central banks in the new year. In particular, the Bank of Japan has promised to change its negative interest rate policy.
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