Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD
Risk 0.50%.
Best buying entry points
- Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 29.80 level.
- Place a stop loss point to close below the 29.65 support level.
- Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
- Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 29.99.
Best-selling entry points
- Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 30.05 level.
- The best points to place a stop loss are closing the highest level of 30.19.
- Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
- Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level of 29.80.
The USD/TRY maintained its continuous rise during the current week, as the pair approaches the level of 30 lira to the dollar. Despite the clear decline in the value of the lira, which lost about 36.6% of its value over the past year, a report issued by the American bank Goldman Sachs included the bank’s analysts’ expectations about the Turkish Central Bank’s net reserves turning more positive during the current year. The report attributed the optimistic expectations to the tightening monetary policy followed by the economic team that took charge following the last presidential elections. This confirmed local demand and reduced the severity of the rise in prices.
The report also indicated that the return of the real interest rate to the positive space led to an increase in foreign exchange inflow, which contributed significantly to reducing the current account deficit, which will be significantly reflected in improving Turkish external balances. In this regard, the US Bank expects a decline in the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP in 2023 by up to 4.1%, with the deficit in 2024 recording 1.8%. The bank's analysts also suggested that the Turkish Central Bank would not allow the nominal value of the Turkish lira to be strengthened and instead restructure its general budget.
The latest data issued this morning revealed that the cash balance of the Turkish treasury during the year 2023 recorded a deficit estimated at 625.5 billion liras, according to what the Turkish Ministry of Treasury and Finance announced.
USD/TRY Technical Analysis
The USD/TRY has continued its continuous rise since the beginning of this month, with the Turkish lira continuing to record new low levels against the dollar, as the pair is heading to the psychological barrier at 30 lira per dollar. The pair settled above the upper border of the rising wedge pattern on the daily time frame shown on the chart. At the same time, the price maintained its trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily and four-hour time frames, respectively, which intersect positively in an indication of the strong general upward trend that dominates the pair in the long term.
If the pair maintains its gains, it targets levels of 30 and 30.15, respectively, while if the price declines, it targets levels of 29.80 and 29.75, respectively. The Turkish Lira price forecast includes an increase in the pair, targeting 30 Lira levels. Please adhere to the mentioned recommendation points and maintain capital management.
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