The US Central Bank's hints that it is ready to keep US interest rates high helped the price of the US dollar to reap more of its gains against the rest of the other major currencies. Therefore, the GBP/USD declined to the support level of 1.2610 before settling around the level of 1.2670. at the time of writing the analysis, breaking the general upward trend for the currency pair continues, and this will strengthen if it moves towards the support level of 1.2580.
On the other hand, MUFG noted that the latest UK inflation data was encouraging. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that retail prices rose by 4.3% in the year to December, while food price inflation slowed to 6.7% from 7.8% in the previous month. MUFG said: "The headline data continues to point convincingly to easing inflationary risks. The 6-month annual rate in the UK to November is now just 0.6%, while the core rate is 2.4%. clearly, inflation rates are now falling at the same speed as they rose in the first half of the year."
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Furthermore, The Fed's hawkish stance is likely to continue to weigh on the pound, while the UK's own economic growth is slowing. Recently, the pair could fall to the support level of 1.2580 in the coming days or weeks. Moreover, the next UK inflation data will be released on January 17.
Also, conditions within the UK economy will be key. After gradual gains from -30 since June, the latest Institute of Directors (IoD) confidence index fell to -28 in December from -21 in November. Moreover, expectations for costs and wages remained at +74 and +69 respectively, indicating significant inflationary pressures. Furthermore, IOD Policy Director Roger Parker commented that rising interest rates had a negative impact on the economy. According to Parker, “Although aspects of the business environment have improved in the past two months, especially with regard to inflation, this has not yet significantly affected the business decision-making process.”
However, business leaders were more optimistic about the prospects for their own businesses with hopes of increased revenue and export growth. Accordingly, the Democracy Institute called on the Bank of England (BoE) to start cutting interest rates in early 2024. Parker added; “With inflationary pressures easing, businesses are in desperate need of support if they are to help drive meaningful economic growth in 2024.”
Meanwhile, a key consideration is whether there is an impact on Bank of England policy. According to MUFG, “However, the Bank of England is unlikely to change its rhetoric on monetary policy any time soon, and a significant decline in wage growth will be needed before the Bank of England begins to shift its focus from potentially raising interest rates to lowering interest rates.”
GBP/USD Expectations and Analysis Today:
Technically, The GBP/USD continues to trade several levels below the 100-hour moving average line. Yesterday's recovery prevented the currency pair from falling to the oversold levels of the 14-hour RSI. In the near term, and according to the performance on the hourly chart, it appears that the GBP/USD currency pair is trading within the formation of a limited ascending channel. Now, the pair has risen to recover from the oversold levels of the 14-hour RSI. Therefore, the bulls will target extended gains at around 1.2670 or higher at 1.2708 resistance. In contrast, the bears will target short-term profits at around 1.2609 or lower at the 1.2574 support.
In the long term, and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the GBP/USD pair is trading within an upward channel. Recently, the currency pair has pulled back to avoid rising to the overbought levels of the 14-day RSI. Therefore, the bears will target extended pullbacks at around 1.2532 or lower at the 1.2400 support. On the other hand, the bulls - the bulls - will be looking to pounce on bounces at around 1.2742 or higher at 1.2866 resistance.
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