- On Thursday, the US dollar experienced a substantial decline in value, with its downward trajectory taking it to a critical level of ¥145. This particular zone has previously held significance, making it intriguing to observe whether a rebound is in store.
- Beneath this juncture, the 200-Day EMA potentially holds considerable importance as a support level.
- Consequently, I believe we must anticipate some form of resurgence in this region. Nevertheless, the market currently finds itself in a precarious position, especially with the impending release of the non-Farm Payroll report on Friday.
In light of this, it becomes essential to assess whether this report will offer any insights into whether the Federal Reserve might consider adjusting its monetary policy. A weaker job figures report could potentially bolster the argument for such policy adjustments. Nonetheless, the presence of the 200-Day EMA adds another layer of complexity to the situation, and we must await further developments to ascertain whether the market is going to respect that technical indicator. Generally speaking, I am not inclined to favor the idea of purchasing the Japanese yen, primarily due to my belief that the Bank of Japan may be facing more challenges in terms of monetary tightening compared to other central banks. Nevertheless, a minor correction might become a possibility, given the gradual convergence of central bank policies. While this may seem somewhat speculative, it is a perspective worth considering at this juncture.
Rally? Maybe.
Should the market stage a rally and manage to breach the upper boundary of the current candlestick formation, it would signify an exceptionally bullish signal, potentially setting the stage for an ascent towards the ¥149.80 level. Conversely, a daily closing price below the 200-Day EMA may finally indicate the conclusion of the upward trend. Irrespective of the ensuing developments, one can expect a surge in volatility. It is worth noting that following Friday, trading volumes typically decline as we enter the holiday season, and this is likely to exert a significant influence on future market dynamics, assuming they manifest at all.
Consequently, brace for a potential period of heightened volatility in the short term, followed by a more subdued trading environment lasting approximately ten days as the holiday season wipes out a lot of volume. Ultimately, this is a market that has been in a strong uptrend, and therefore it makes sense that we pullback as traders could be collecting their profit at the end of the year as well.
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