USD/INR: December 2023

The USD/INR is trading near the 83.3500 mark during this last day of November and the currency pair has delivered a rather intriguing month of results. In October a rather suspicious technical resistance level emerged which consistently proved strong near the 83.3000 price level. However, that changed in November.  Until the 9^th of November the USD/INR in fact maintained the 83.3000 resistance juncture fairly well, but then a violent burst of trading emerged on the 10^th when the a momentary high near 83.4700 was seen which was the high for November in the currency pair.

Yet, after the rupture higher, calmer water prevailed again and the low for the USD/INR moved to the 83.1850 mark approximately on the same day before going into the weekend. It is known the government of India has a tight grip on the value of the USD/INR. Suspiciously, the USD/INR began to break above the 18.3000 ratio on the 13^th of November, the currency pair was not beaten back quickly. But that changed the very next day when a massive amount of selling hit the USD/INR and the low for the month was established near the 82.8700 very briefly.

Diwali and Speculative Conditions in the USD/INR

The holiday of Diwali may have been a factor during the 10^th through the 14^th of November. Volumes in the USD/INR were likely affected by skittish volumes and perhaps this helped fuel the sudden high which was followed by the rather stark low. The last time the USD/INR saw the 82.8700 mark was on the 22^nd of September. The price of the currency pair then produced a fast climb higher on the 14^th of November and by Monday the 20^t the USD/INR was near the 18.3700 level, which is curiously around the current price.

Intriguingly since the 20^th of November a ‘new’ higher price range for the USD/INR has emerged which is consistently seeing resistance strong around the 18.3800 vicinity and support near the 18.2400 area. Technically it appears the USD/INR has actually increased in value during November, this as the USD became weaker in many currency pairs it is teamed against globally. And this opens questions about the direction for the USD/INR in December.

Stability of the USD/INR has been Remarkable

• The USD/INR has actually been quite stable compared to most other major currency pairs. The Reserve Bank of India is obviously playing an instrumental part in the value of the Indian Rupee.
• The incremental rise in value above the October resistance level is intriguing, and opens the consideration that the Indian government wanted the Indian Rupee to be slightly weaker in November – perhaps for international commerce considerations.

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