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Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD
Risk 0.50%.
Best buying entry points
- Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 28.90 level.
- Place a stop loss closing point below the support level at 28.70.
- Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
- Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 29.15.
Best-selling entry points
- Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 29.30 level.
- The best points to place a stop loss are closing the highest level of 29.45.
- Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
- Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels of 29.10
The USD/TRY rose during early trading on Tuesday, as the pair reached its highest level ever. The lira was not positively affected by the Turkish Central Bank's decision last week to raise interest rates by about 250 basis points.
In this regard, Goldman Sachs expects that the recent increase in Turkish interest rates represents the end of the current phase of monetary tightening, unlike other banks that expect further increases in interest rates. The bank's analysts indicate in the report issued earlier last week that unless there is an unexpected rise in inflation, the interest rate will remain at its new peak of 42.5%, while the US Bank expects the Turkish Central Bank to begin reducing borrowing costs after the third quarter of 2024, expecting interest rates to fall to 25% by the end of the year.
In other forecasts, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America revealed the possibility of adopting another similar increase in January, to control inflation, which is expected to reach 70% soon. Bank of America expects the initial interest rate cut at the end of 2024, assuming that inflation declines to 36% in line with the Turkish Central Bank’s expectations at the end of the year. Deutsche Bank also expects the possibility of lowering interest rates starting early in the third quarter of next year.
TRY/USD Technical Analysis
On the technical level, the dollar pair rose against the lira during early trading this morning, as the pair traded at its highest levels ever at 29.30.
The price continues to move within a large price channel in today's time frame, reflecting the strong general upward trend that the pair has been following over several months. While the pair broke through the smaller ascending price channel shown in the chart. If the pair rises, it targets the resistance levels, which are concentrated at the 29.35 and 29.50 levels, respectively, while on the other hand, if the pair declines, it targets the 28.90 and 28.75 levels, respectively.
The pair is trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages respectively on the day time frame, as well as on the 4-hour time frame in a reflection of buyers' control over the price. The pair is expected to continue its general upward trend as long as it stabilizes within the borders of the mentioned price channels. Please adhere to the mentioned recommendation points and maintain capital management.
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