The EUR/USD initially made an attempt to rally during Thursday's trading session, only to make an about-face and exhibit signs of negativity. This shift in sentiment may be attributed to the preceding prolonged upward trajectory witnessed in the market, necessitating a retracement of sorts. Additionally, the release of PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) figures throughout the day is poised to exert a certain degree of influence on market dynamics. Nevertheless, it remains indisputable that this market needed to undergo a correction following its surge towards the formidable 1.10 level. This level is, of course, a substantial, rounded, and psychologically significant milestone, which has historically played a pivotal role. I don’t see why it would be any different this time. Furthermore, options markets will be paying close attention to it as well.
So Now What?
The prevailing question now revolves around the nature of this correction—is it a transitory pullback or the precursor to a more substantial shift in market direction? The current landscape appears characterized by a discernible downward momentum, suggesting the potential for further follow-through. In this context, the 1.0850 level below holds the potential as a support zone, followed closely by the 1.08 level. The latter has previously demonstrated its significance, bolstering the likelihood of finding support in that vicinity. A breach below this crucial level would undoubtedly signify a significant alteration in the market's dynamics. Further downward, we encounter the "golden cross" formation, which materialized when the 50-Day EMA crossed above the 200-Day EMA indicator.
In the end, the overall sentiment leans towards a somewhat unfavorable turn of events. However, it is essential to exercise caution before initiating short positions on the euro. The next one or two sessions will serve as critical determinants in discerning whether the current scenario is merely a temporary pullback or an indication of a broader market shift. The repercussions of this development will have ripple effects worldwide; a sustained decline in the euro would likely result in an ascent of the US dollar against a multitude of assets, including other currencies and precious metals. In essence, the upcoming two sessions will be pivotal in determining where we go next, prompting those already invested in this market to consider tightening their stop-loss orders, as we find ourselves once again at an inflection point in the forex markets, including this one.
Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best currency trading platforms in the industry for you.