For four consecutive trading sessions, the price of the USD/JPY has been trying to rebound higher to break out of the prominent downtrend channel on the daily chart below. However, those attempts stopped at the resistance level of 144.95 before settling around the level of 143.50 at the time of writing the analysis. Recently, the pair was greatly affected by Bank of Japan's signals that it is ready to abandon negative interest rates. Furthermore, the bank's decision to keep its policy settings this week stopped the yen's gains in anticipation of what happened in 2024 meetings. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve kept US interest rates unchanged, but what negatively affected the price of the US dollar against other major currencies was the bank's signals that it is ready to cut interest rates in 2024.
On the economic side, American consumers are feeling more confident than they have been since the summer, which is good news for businesses as the all-important holiday shopping season reaches its peak. In this regard, the Conference Board business research group said that the US consumer confidence index rose for the second consecutive month to 110.7 in December from 101 in November. Obviously, this was much better than analysts’ expectations of 104.5 and the highest reading since July.
Meanwhile, Americans' expectations of a recession in the next 12 months have fallen to their lowest levels so far this year. The index measures Americans' assessment of the current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months. Also, Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity in the United States, so economists pay close attention to consumer behaviour as they measure the economy overall.
Over and above that, the index measuring short-term expectations of Americans for income, business, and the job market rose to 85.6 in December from 77.4 in October. Historically, this is the first time in four months that it has surpassed the 80 level. A reading below 80 for future expectations historically indicates a recession within a year. Shortly, survey responses indicated that rising prices still constitute a significant concern for consumers, while worries about interest rates and geopolitical conflicts have decreased.
On the other hand, Consumers' view of current conditions also jumped this month to 148.5 from 136.5 in November. Also, the survey showed modest increases in consumers' intentions to purchase homes, cars, appliances, and holiday spending. Unexpectedly, Americans increased their spending at retail stores from October to November as the unofficial holiday season began, highlighting the strength of shoppers despite rising prices. Finally, US retail sales rose 0.3% in November compared to October, when sales fell 0.2%, according to the Commerce Department.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the price of the USD/JPY pair is still trying to get out of the bearish channel that was formed recently. Consequently, this occurred after it collapsed towards the support level of 140.95, which is closest to breaking the psychological support of 140.00. Moreover, the attempts to bounce higher did not exceed the resistance of 144.95. Furthermore, the bulls are looking for factors. Obviously, the Investors may be counting on stronger than expected results for the US data today, led by the announcement of the GDP growth reading, the number of weekly unemployed claims, and in general, breaking the 146.60 resistance, which is most important to break out of the current downward channel. In the same period, returning to the support area of 142.30 will push the bears to move towards the next psychological support of 140.00. finally, the currency pair will remain dependent on the signals of the future policies of the central banks, especially the Bank of Japan.
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