USD/JPY Analysis: Stable Performance Awaiting American Jobs.

The price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) may remain in the current bearish stability mode until the reaction to the announcement of important US jobs numbers

  • Before the announcement of the important and influential US jobs numbers, the price of the US dollar consolidated against the rest of the other major currencies after achieving its recent gains.
  • On the other hand, the USD/JPY pair stabilized around the 147.40 level, recovering from the losses of the recent selling operations, which pressured the price to the support level of 146.22.
  • Note that this level is the lowest for the dollar/yen in nearly three months. Yesterday, the price of the US dollar consolidated after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) provided a reality check on interest rate cut bets.

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Recently, US Dollar was stronger against other major currencies after a survey of the US economy showed continued growth in November and warned market participants of excessive US interest rate cut expectations. As, the ISM Services Sector Survey came in at a strong 52.7, which beat analysts' expectations of 52 and represented an increase in activity from 51.8 in October.

The rule, a reading above the 50 level indicates growth, which confirms that the overall growth rate in the largest sector of the US economy remains healthy. Commenting on this, Tim Quinlan, chief economist at Wells Fargo Bank, says: “As much as the services sector continues to move, it could shatter the growing hope in financial markets that interest rate cuts are still far off the horizon.”

Before this data release, the price of the US dollar declined during the month of November, as markets raised their expectations regarding the timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, considering that inflation and economic activity had declined quickly enough to justify such a move. In general, if the incoming data indicate that the US economy is stronger, which would be consistent with a moderate decline in inflation, expectations of lowering interest rates are likely to decline. This would support the dollar's gains. For his part, Kieran Clancy, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says: “The strong increases made by the US Federal Reserve have not yet had a tangible impact on services activity, unlike the manufacturing sector, where the bulk of the tightening is reflected in weak activity numbers.”.

Expectations for USD/JPY for upcoming days:

Expectedly, there is a possibility of further decline in the value of the US dollar against the yen (USD/JPY) before the rebound is complete and another upward wave begins. However, this came according to a leading currency analyst at an investment bank, who is monitoring the continued decline of the dollar exchange rate against the yen from its recent highs. Meanwhile, Brad Bechtel, analyst at Jefferies Investment Banking and Capital Markets say: “I estimate we will likely fall below 145.00 and perhaps look towards the 200-day moving average but we won't actually get there before that move is over.”

Recently, USDJPY peaked at 151.90 on November 13, as the 2023 rally - built on a broad sell-off in the yen - extended beyond 150 major markets. Moreover, this move represents a massive 16% advance for the dollar against the yen in 2023, and according to Bechtel, the recent pullback to 146.97 today is not yet evidence that this rally is complete.

Furthermore, Bechtel notes that USD/JPY has fallen 5 or 6% twice this year, once in March and again in July. Obviously, one heading towards the end of the quarter and one right after the end of the quarter). The analyst added, “In the current movement, which began immediately after the end of the September quarter, we have declined by about 4% so far.” Ended, “If history repeats or repeats itself, it will mean an additional 1 or 2% decline before the movement is complete.”

Also, he added that the decline is likely to coincide with reliance on US revenues as well. If this is true, this will pull us below 145.00 versus 147.00. The 200-day moving average lurks near 142.20. “So, I estimate that it is likely that we will fall below 145.00 and perhaps look towards the 200-day moving average but we will not actually get there.”

Consequently, another march towards the highest levels can begin. The analyst adds that many are dismayed by the idea that we are about to see a significant rise in the Japanese yen in 2024. Moreover, we would argue that the bulk of this movement is essentially over. Also, It may be worth chasing another percentage or two, but we wouldn't bet on a big structural bull market for the Japanese yen in 2024.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

The price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) may remain in the current bearish stability mode until the reaction to the announcement of important US jobs numbers. The data which affects the future tightening of US Federal Reserve policy. Thus, according to the performance on the daily chart below, the psychological resistance of 150.00 will remain the key to bulls’ strong control over the general direction again. On the downside, the support level of 145.80 will remain the most important for bears currently.

USD/JPY (Daily Chart)

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Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.