In the early hours of Monday, the US dollar saw some small strength, but market volatility remains high. We had to have me shoot for the week, so last week was harsh on the candlestick. Having said that, the difference in interest rates makes this a very bullish market, therefore I'm not necessarily seeking to short this market. That kind of weekly candlestick does, however, alert me to the possibility that we may see a pullback of some kind. In that scenario, the 50-Day EMA and the ¥147.80 level, in my opinion, enter the picture to provide support.
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Under the hand, we are hoping for a move to the ¥151.75 level, which was the top of the candlestick for the previous week if we were determined to break out of the ¥150 level. The US dollar would be able to surpass the Japanese yen once more if we were to see that trend continue to the upward. To be honest, I do believe it can happen given enough time. However, the real question at hand is not so much whether it may happen as it is whether you are prepared to buy dollars now or whether you are waiting to buy them at a cheaper price. At this time, I would lean cautiously positive, but I'm not necessarily seeking to toss a ton of money into this market, at least not now – it’s too messy with so much outside noise continuing to be a problem.
Looking to Buy the Dips
- Considering that I wouldn't be too concerned unless we broke below the ¥147.80 mark, I think it makes sense to seize the opportunity, as many traders have done early on Monday morning.
- It's difficult to see how this pattern changes in the current climate when you get paid to stay onto the currency pair until the Bank of Japan changes its general policy or the US bond market does. The swap does matter over time, so if things are stable, this pair will continue to favor the upside.
- Furthermore, the Fed is light years from loosening policy, and the Japanese won’t tighten. Over the long run, this is a market that will continue to see plenty of holders, almost like an investment over time. The market continues to be one of “buy the dips.”
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