- The continuation of the clear discrepancy between the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy and the Bank of Japan, which has negative interest rates, continues to support the dollar against the yen.
- Also, the demand to buy the US dollar as a safe haven, are factors that helped bulls a lot to move again in the USD/JPY currency pair, with gains that extended towards the upper 151.90 resistance level.
- Therefore, it has been around for a year and is stable around the level of 151.65 at the time of writing the analysis, prior to the announcement of the important and influential US inflation numbers.
But amid the current performance, what is expected for the price of the Japanese yen?
Credit Agricole's short-term trading model is buying the Japanese yen against the euro and US dollar this week thanks to the significant deviation in the value of the Japanese yen to the short-term fair value. Recently, Forex currency analysts at Credit Agricole Bank believe that the fair value of the dollar against the yen (USD/JPY) rose from 145.62 to 147.45 due to the rise in short-term interest rates between the United States and Japan and the strength of Japanese stocks.
Generally, lower oil prices and lower bond yield spreads between the United States and Japan have limited the appreciation of the exchange rate in the fair value. In this regard, Valentin Marinov, Forex analyst at Credit Agricole, says, “The overvaluation of the USD/JPY pair has increased to approximately two standard deviations. Therefore, the FAST FX pattern triggered another sell trade for USD/JPY with a stop loss of -1.01% and a take profit level of 147.4537.”
In general, Crédit Agricole's Foreign Currency Short-Term Financial Assets (FAST) model estimates fair values of foreign currencies based on cointegration relationships between G10 exchange rates and their short-term financial fundamentals. It uses large deviations from these fair values to enter trades in a simulated portfolio.
Meanwhile, EUR/JPY rose from 155.06 to 157.37 due to a higher spread in short-term interest rates between the euro zone and Japan and a lower European peripheral bond yield to the bond yield spread, according to Credit Agricole. In this regard, the bank’s analyst says, “The EUR/JPY pair is still overvalued by more than two standard deviations.” Therefore, the FAST FX pattern triggered another short trade for EUR/JPY with a stop loss of -1.25% and a take profit level of 157.36.”
USD/JPY Trading Outlook
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the general trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) is still bullish, and its recent gains have moved all the technical indicators towards strong levels of saturation with purchase. As we mentioned, Japanese intervention in the markets to prevent further collapse of the yen is imminent and may happen at any time. Therefore, if an event occurs that will change the trend of the USD/JPY currency pair to a strong bearish direction in a very short time, wherever, we do not prefer to buy with a risk from those peaks. The closest resistance levels for the currency pair are currently 152.20 and 153.00, respectively.
Shortly, considering that the announcement of US inflation numbers today will have a strong and direct reaction on the US dollar pairs, as it will directly affect the future of raising US interest rates.
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