TRY/USD Forecast: Turkey's Monetary Policy Shift Attracts Traders’ Interest

At the same time, the price is trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily time frame, as well as on the four-hour time frame, indicating the control of buyers within the general upward trend that the pair is recording in the long term. 

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Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

Risk 0.50%.

Best buying entry points

  • Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 28.60 level.
  • Place a stop loss closing point below the support level at 28.40.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 28.75.

Best-selling entry points

  • Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 28.80 level.
  • The best points to place a stop loss are closing the highest level of 28.95.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level of 28.49

The Turkish currency opened weekly trading against the dollar near its lowest levels ever. Despite the current decline in the price of the lira, there are expectations that the Turkish currency will stabilize in the medium term to attract interest traders, especially after the shift in monetary policy that Turkey witnessed, which led analysts of global financial institutions to expect a recovery in Turkish lira bonds, which, according to Deutsche Bank analysts, will shift from Being the worst in terms of investment during the current year, it will become one of the best investment tools in 2024. The German Bank, along with JP Morgan in the United States of America, favored the return of investors to invest in these bonds after they were exited during previous years in light of the unconventional monetary policy that The Turkish president at the time followed suit.

In other news, Turkish Minister of Finance and Treasury, Mehmet Simsek, announced that his country is working to strengthen its relations with international institutions with the aim of supporting Turkey's economic program to ensure financial stability. His country signed a financing loan agreement amounting to 400 million euros with the European Investment Bank for the reconstruction of cities damaged in the south of the country by the earthquake that struck the region in February. As the minister confirmed, the country is spending about 3 percent of the current year’s gross domestic product for reconstruction. The Turkish Minister also concluded his statements by saying that the foreign reserve in the Turkish Central Bank is witnessing a continuous increase, and he also pledged to do everything necessary to reduce inflation and the current account deficit.

TRY/USD Technical Analysis

On the technical level, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira recorded stability near its highest levels ever at 28.80 levels during early trading on Monday morning. The pair continued trading within the ascending price channel on the 240-minute time frame shown in the chart. If the pair declines, it will target the support levels concentrated at 28.65 and 28.45, respectively. On the other hand, if the price rises, it will target the resistance levels, which are concentrated at 28.85 and 28.99, respectively.

At the same time, the price is trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily time frame, as well as on the four-hour time frame, indicating the control of buyers within the general upward trend that the pair is recording in the long term. The change in monetary policy may prepare the pair to record an upward wave but at a slower pace. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

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Amir Issa
Economic editor , more than 12 years experience in the global financial markets and in the field of currency and metals trading. I supervised on many sites related to investment, finance and training in the field of forex and global exchanges.