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TRY/USD Forecast: Expectations of an Increase in Interest Rates

On the technical level, the dollar pair stabilized against the Turkish lira during early trading this morning, as the price traded near its highest levels ever, 28.60. 

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    Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

    Risk 0.50%.

    Best buying entry points

    • Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 28.50 level.
    • Place a stop loss closing point below the support level of 28.30.
    • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
    • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 28.75.

    Best-selling entry points

    • Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 28.80 level.
    • The best points to place a stop loss are closing the highest level of 28.95.
    • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
    • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels of 28.49

    The Turkish currency declined during last week's trading, as the dollar pair against the lira recorded new high levels at the end of the week. The lira's declines come amid positive reports about the Turkish economy. In this regard, the President of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce commented that the shift in monetary policy has begun to show some positive results with the end of exchange rate fluctuations, and imports have also recorded a slowdown and thus the trade balance has improved. Meanwhile, investors followed the statements of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who stated his government’s determination to combat inflation, saying that its effects will be erased during the coming period. He also praised the government’s achievement of raising the minimum wage at unprecedented rates in light of the government’s keenness. Keeping pace with the effects of inflation. It is noteworthy that some analysts have criticized the successive wage hikes, which may increase the volume of spending and thus may increase the negative impact on inflation.

    In terms of data, the Turkish Central Bank revealed that the bank’s total foreign currency reserves increased last week by about one billion and 860 million dollars, bringing the total to 128 billion and 420 billion dollars. While the latest data issued by the Turkish Statistics Authority revealed that the unemployment rate declined last September by 0.1% to reach 9.1%.

     TRY/USD Technical Analysis

    On the technical level, the dollar pair stabilized against the Turkish lira during early trading this morning, as the price traded near its highest levels ever, 28.60. The pair continued its rise within the ascending price channel on the 240-minute time frame. If the pair declines, it will target the support levels concentrated at 28.45 and 28.25, respectively. On the other hand, if the price rises, it will target the resistance levels, which are concentrated at 28.85 and 28.99, respectively.

    At the same time, the price is trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily time frame, as well as on the four-hour time frame, indicating the control of buyers within the general upward trend that the pair is recording in the long term. The change in monetary policy may prepare the pair to record an upward wave, but at a slower pace. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

    USD/TRY

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    Amir Issa
    About Amir Issa
    Economic editor , more than 12 years experience in the global financial markets and in the field of currency and metals trading. I supervised on many sites related to investment, finance and training in the field of forex and global exchanges.
     

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