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Trading Support and Resistance – USD/CAD

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the US Dollar, and relative weakness in the Australian Dollar.

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    This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly Forex forecast of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

    Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

    Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

    Monthly Forecast November 2023

    For the month of November, I made no forecast, as the US Dollar was making a deep counter-trend retracement.

    Weekly Forecast 12th November 2023

    Last week, I forecasted that the NZD/USD and AUD/USD currency pairs would fall in value. This was a good call, as the NZD/USD currency pair fell by 1.81% and the AUD/USD currency pair fell by 2.37%, giving an average win of 2.09%.

    This week, I give no forecast as there were no unusually strong counter-trend price movements in the Forex market last week.

    Directional volatility in the Forex market decreased last week with 37% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating over the week by more than 1%. Volatility is likely to increase over the coming week, due mostly to the scheduled US CPI (inflation) data release.

    Last week was dominated by relative strength in the US Dollar, and relative weakness in the Australian Dollar.

    You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

    Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

    I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be monitored on the more popular currency pairs this week.

    Key Support and Resistance Levels

    Let us see how trading one of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:


    I had expected the level at $1.3815 might act as resistance in the USD/CAD currency pair last week, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “role reversal” levels can work well. The H1 price chart below shows how the price rejected this level during last Friday’s New York / London session overlap (which can be a great time to enter trades in major currency pairs like this one) with a bearish pin bar, marked by the down arrow in the price chart below signaling the timing of this bearish rejection. This trade has been profitable so far, giving a maximum reward to risk ratio of more than 1 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick.

    USD/CAD Hourly Price Chart

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    Adam Lemon
    About Adam Lemon

    Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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