GBP/USD: Weekly Forecast 19th November - 25th November

If the GBP/USD opens with a stable value on Monday and sustains values early, this could set the table for bullish traders to ignite pursuit of higher values.

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The GBP/USD entered the last week of trading near lows, this after the previous week from the 6th until the 10th of November had provided bullish speculators with difficult results. In a turn of events, the GBP/USD began Monday the 13th of November near 1.22250 and burst higher on Tuesday climbing to a high above the 1.25000 ratio briefly. Although the high created on Tuesday faded slightly, the GBP/USD managed to go into this weekend near the 1.24530 vicinity which will likely be looked on favorably by speculators of the currency pair who have bullish instincts.

Economic data from the U.S last week regarding inflation came in less than anticipated and U.K CPI statistics were slightly weaker than estimated too. Both the U.S and U.K also turned in worse than expected Retails Sales figures. Traders with a grasp of fundamentals regarding economics will likely perceive these outcomes in a positive light for the potential of GBP/USD bullish conditions over the mid-term. The U.S Federal Reserve is certainly anticipated by many investors to become less aggressive soon.

Holiday Trading will be Seen this Week in the GBP/USD

A word of warning to speculators of the GBP/USD for this coming week, Thursday is a major holiday in the U.S and trading volumes will begin to fall off a cliff regarding Forex volumes on Wednesday. American financial institutions will largely be away from their desks starting Wednesday late afternoon until Monday the 27th of November. This means there is a potential for early volatility tomorrow and Tuesday if large positioning takes place among the U.S financial houses before they disappear for the Thanksgiving holiday. Day traders should be ready for the potential of early volatility this week, to be followed by quiet conditions and the danger of spikes on Thursday and Friday.

Having seen a dynamic surge on Tuesday and the ability to largely hold onto the gains in the GBP/USD before going into this weekend, traders may feel the currency pair has seen its lows and maybe anticipating bullish conditions to continue mid-term. However, choppy trading is certain to be seen in the coming days and reversals lower as always are a potential danger. Yet, the GBP/USD does look attractive regarding upside movement and the 1.25000 target does feel appropriate.

Overly Ambitious Targets are Always Dangerous

  • Traders looking for upside in the GBP/USD cannot be blamed, but their price targets need to be kept realistic. Cashing out profitable trades, instead of dreaming about massive gains is important for short-term speculators. Conservative leverage is urged.
  • Support levels near the 1.24200 to 1.24150 ratios should be watched. If the higher support level is sustained and proves durable, this could ignite more buying speculation.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.23850 to 1.25925

Because of the U.S Thanksgiving holiday this coming Thursday, GBP/USD traders need to understand that early market action could prove dynamic and that later this week conditions will become choppy. The U.S Federal Reserve will release its Fed Meeting Minutes on Tuesday and this could spark some speculative dynamics in the GBP/USD. Having broken the 1.25000 mark on Tuesday of last week, some speculators will believe these highs could be challenged again. Traders should watch the opening of GBP/USD Forex early on Monday, and also check to see if risk appetite remains solid in global markets. There seem to be signals risk appetite has improved. If global equity indices remains stable and buyers are dominating, this could be a positive signal.

If the GBP/USD opens with a stable value on Monday and sustains values early, this could set the table for bullish traders to ignite pursuit of higher values. Again, because of the coming holiday in the U.S trading volumes will be limited on Thursday and Friday. Conditions may appear quiet later this week and then see sudden spikes emerge because of a limited amount of market participants. Traders should be using stop losses to guard against volatility which could develop without any apparent reason on Thursday and Friday.


Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.