- The GBP/USD initially made a push higher during Monday's trading session but later relinquished a significant portion of its gains against the US dollar.
- Nevertheless, it's important to note that the market is poised to remain characterized by considerable volatility, especially given the preceding candlestick formation, which resembles a hammer.
- This hammer pattern suggests the presence of at least some level of support.
However, the broader context reveals that we are currently within the confines of a bearish flag pattern. Consequently, it would be reasonable to anticipate a resurgence of selling pressure in this market. Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average located above may continue to act as a barrier, warranting close attention.
In the event that we observe a breakdown below the lower boundary of the hammer formation from the Friday session, it would signal a potential descent towards the uptrend line, which marks the base of the flag pattern. Should this level be breached, it opens the door for a move towards the psychologically significant 1.20 level, which also holds historical significance.
A decline below the 1.20 level would carry profoundly negative implications for the British pound, prompting a lot of phone no trading to the downside, and would probably happen with a general “positive US dollar move” across the Forex markets. That being said, I think we are essentially going to be bouncing around in the flag pattern.
It's Important to Maintain a Balanced Perspective
On the contrary, a break above the 50-Day EMA introduces the prospect of an ascent towards the 200-Day EMA, which coincides with the upper boundary of the flag pattern. While last week saw an attempt to break above this level that ultimately failed, a subsequent successful breach would indicate increased market resilience. Such an outcome could potentially lead to a substantial upward surge, constituting a notable shift in market dynamics.
However, it's important to maintain a balanced perspective, and it's unlikely that the US dollar will experience a significant downturn given the current tight monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, it is wise to be prepared and acknowledge the potential for sudden changes in the environment. After all, the Federal Reserve does acquiesce and blink to the demands of Wall Street, we could see the US dollar get hammered and the British pound would probably be one of the main beneficiaries.
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