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EUR/USD: Weekly Forecast 12th November - 18th November

The EUR/USD has been able to achieve upward momentum since its early October lows, but the path has not produced an easy trend.

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    The EUR/USD was trading near a high of almost 1.07575 on Monday of last week which touched a high last seen on the 13th of September. Having hit a low around the 1.04500 mark in early October, some speculators may have believed the trajectory upwards may continue with less brutal reversals lower. However, after attaining the nearly two-month apex for the EUR/USD early last week, the EUR/USD began to hit known headwinds and stumbled.

    On early Friday morning, the EUR/USD made its low for the week around the 1.06560 ratio, yes it did claw upwards again and went into the weekend near the 1.06840 vicinity. Yet, the EUR/USD continues to produce choppy conditions which are certainly testing speculators. The low early on Friday had last been seen one week before, but on Friday the 3rd of November the EUR/USD was in the midst of a fast upward climb.

    EUR/USD Reversals Remain Dangerous Amidst Intriguing Support

    The EUR/USD has been able to achieve upward momentum since its early October lows, but the path has not produced an easy trend. Speculators still face nervous day-to-day conditions as risk-averse trading is demonstrated by harsh reversals. Risk management remains important for speculators.

    Support levels technically are important and when tomorrow’s trading opens speculators should watch to see if the 1.6600 to 1.06500 levels can prove durable in the short and near term. If these support levels can prove they are not vulnerable, speculative influences in the EUR/USD may believe this is evidence that the reversal lower from the 1.07260 area on Thursday to fresh lows on Friday may prove to be solid target area for reversals upwards.

    U.S. data will Factor into EUR/USD this Coming Week

    Consumer sentiment numbers from the U.S. on Friday came in weaker than anticipated, but inflation expectations among consumers were higher than estimated. This means that U.S. consumers are showing some signs of stress, intriguingly those outcomes fundamentally should cause the USD to be weaker in the minds of many analysts.  However other factors still persist like higher U.S bond yields which remain investment vehicles for financial institutions seeking a secured ‘return’.  And if inflation does remain high, which is the fear; this will not help the USD get weaker.

    • The U.S. will release important Consumer Price Index results on Tuesday and this will be followed by Retail Sales numbers on Wednesday.
    • These two reports will be watched closely by investors and affect the EUR/USD in the middle of the week.
    • Risk-averse conditions remain fragile and are shadowing global markets. The U.S. also had its creditworthiness called into question by a Moody’s ratings agency late last Friday which may create nervous talking points in the days to come.

    EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

    Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.05925 to 1.07910

    Having experienced solid selling on Thursday and seeing that its lower near-term depths were traversed on Friday, traders should be cautious when the EUR/USD opens on Monday. While the 1.06800 mark will certainly be an early support level below speculators will watch, movements lower towards the 1.6600 could be a sign of additional nervousness coming into the EUR/USD. However, if the EUR/USD can see early buying power and the 1.06900 quickly established a run higher towards the 1.0700 would certainly be in the cards. Risk sentiment should be carefully watched. Gold could remain a barometer, the precious metal struggled on Friday and if gold remains weaker in the coming days this may be a positive sign for the EUR/USD.

    If the EUR/USD is able to cross the 1.07000 level and sustain this mark going into the U.S CPI numbers on Tuesday, it could present a dynamic speculative opportunity. If the U.S inflation numbers come in weaker than anticipated this could also be a catalyst for the EUR/USD to gain some momentum. But traders looking for overly ambitious upwards moves should be cautious and be willing to cash out winnings as they develop. For the EUR/USD to achieve the 1.08000 level this week, the U.S. would likely have to have weaker CPI and Retail Sales numbers, and risk appetite would likely have to show more teeth in the global markets.


    Robert Petrucci
    About Robert Petrucci
    Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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